Projection of Older Adults with Disability under the Demo-Socio-Economic Factors in China, 2006-2050

Objectives: This study creates a new model to predict the changing tendency of ageing population with disability, and gave some evidences on prevention and reduction of disability risk. Data & Methods: A cross-sectional data of Second China Sample Survey on Disability (2006) is used in this study. This study combines PDE model with the methods of static covariate-direct prediction, static covariate by type prediction and dynamic covariate effect prediction respectively. Results: The future total number and growth rate of older adults with disabilities in China are very striking. Under scenario II, about 1.5 million of older adults increase annually from 2006 to 2040, and more than 2.5 million increase annually from 2040 to 2050. Total number in 2050 is 3.05 times of 2006. And population ageing, sex, place of residence, marital status, education, income, provincial GDP per capita are significantly affect the prevalence of disability among the older adults. Conclusion： Social and economic factors affect the development process of future changes in size of population with disability, but the most far-reaching impact factor is population aging, so the health expectancy of the elderly population is most worthy of attention.