Spatial pattern and determinants of fertility behavior in India

India’s fertility is declining and at present the country is experiencing significant demographic transition. The fertility pattern at the district level shows robust spatial and spatio-temporal clustering of low fertility values on the one hand and spatial heterogeneity in fertility pattern on the other. While the role of socio-economic factors in explaining fertility variations and its decline have been analyzed in detail, limited attention has been given to explain why reproductive behaviour shows clear spatial dependency resulting in robust spatial clustering at different fertility levels. The present study tries to bridge this gap. Employing geo-spatial technique, it brings out the pattern of spatial clustering in fertility and its regional variations from 1981 to 2011. Next, multivariate research methodology has been applied to analyse the relative role played by space in explaining fertility variations during the last three decades. Our findings taken together indicate that spatial diffusion has played a crucial role in India’s ongoing fertility transition.

Key words: Fertility transition, spatial contiguity, contour maps, spatial regression, spatial diffusion, etc.
JEL Classification: J13, J11, C15, C31, etc.