Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Demographic Outcomes

Many studies have focused on whether racism harms the health of targeted individuals. However less is known about whether and how racial prejudice harms the health of all community members including those who harbor such prejudice across time. The aim of this study is to examine racism as a risk factor harmful for the health of communities within which it occurs. We used data from the 1985-2002 General Social Survey (GSS), a representative sample of the U.S. non-institutionalized population that included questions about racist attitudes towards blacks. We prospectively linked the GSS data to mortality data through 2008 via the National Death Index (NDI) and assessed the effect of racial prejudice on all-cause mortality of individuals above age 18 nested within 384 U.S. Primary Sampling Units using multilevel models and age-period-cohort models. The study reveals that both black and white individuals living in communities with higher levels of racial prejudice had increased mortality rates compared to residents living in communities with less racial prejudice. This association was robust to controls for other individual- and community-level socio-economic characteristics.

It is well known that there are substantial area variations in child mortality rates in the coastal region of Tanzania. Area variations in mortality may be due to characteristics that relate to the area itself (contextual factors) or to characteristics of the individuals who live in these areas (sociodemographic factors). We extend this body of research by hypothesizing that even within rural areas, there exists spatial disparity in child mortality and that this disparity varies by cause of mortality. The objective of this study is to investigate the geographical disparities of cause-specific under-five mortality in Rufiji Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS).
We combined all deaths of children under five that occurred between 2007 and 2010 for each village within the Rufiji HDSS and multiple it by the proportion of deaths assigned to each cause to yield the cause-specific under-five mortality rate at the village level. We rank mortality rates and focus on the leading four causes and contributors to geographical disparity: malaria, pneumonia, birth asphyxia and prematurity/low birth weight.
A total 2801 under-five deaths were recorded. We observe geographical disparities of cause-specific under-five mortality in Rufiji HDSS. These disparities may be due to in socioeconomic differences and healthcare accessibility.

In data poor areas, the use of statistical models is often determined by the quantity and quality of the data.. Here, we explore the pros and cons of three model outcomes, which allow us to evaluate the range of predictions and how they would significantly influence our research conclusions. Using food security survey data for Accra, Ghana collected in 2003, we examine the information derived from spatial, hierarchical, and econometric models respectively. While the data source is the same, the outcomes are different, highlighting the caution researchers must use when determining an appropriate statistical approach. The spatial model delivered vital information on the geographic distribution of food security across the urban landscape, highlight areas of particular concern “hotspots” with statistically significant values. Our use of the hierarchical, or multi-level, model separated the effects of household versus neighborhood variables, allowing us to distinguish the level at which variables were most influential. Lastly, our econometric model emphasized the economic trends among household based on estimated values of household wealth. Together, these three models allow us to draw a more complete picture of food security patterns in Accra, and to draw important and more comprehensive conclusions for policy recommendations.

India’s fertility is declining and at present the country is experiencing significant demographic transition. The fertility pattern at the district level shows robust spatial and spatio-temporal clustering of low fertility values on the one hand and spatial heterogeneity in fertility pattern on the other. While the role of socio-economic factors in explaining fertility variations and its decline have been analyzed in detail, limited attention has been given to explain why reproductive behaviour shows clear spatial dependency resulting in robust spatial clustering at different fertility levels. The present study tries to bridge this gap. Employing geo-spatial technique, it brings out the pattern of spatial clustering in fertility and its regional variations from 1981 to 2011. Next, multivariate research methodology has been applied to analyse the relative role played by space in explaining fertility variations during the last three decades. Our findings taken together indicate that spatial diffusion has played a crucial role in India’s ongoing fertility transition.

Key words: Fertility transition, spatial contiguity, contour maps, spatial regression, spatial diffusion, etc.
JEL Classification: J13, J11, C15, C31, etc.

The vulnerability of HIV/AIDS is very high in Bangladesh, although it is a low prevalent country. The rate of HIV infection among street-based sex workers in central Bangladesh is high. In this study, the spatial statistical models are used to investigate the determinants and spatial dependence/neighborhood dependence of the knowledge of women about HIV risk and AIDS Transmission. The binary join matrix and the inverse distance spatial weights matrix specifications are considered in the empirical models to highlight any differences in spatial patterns. The analysis extends the spatial model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across the divisions and regions to identify the priority area(s) and region(s) that are both knowledge on risks perception of HIV and AIDS transmission and economically lagging. The literacy rate of women and men, women literacy rate square, average household size, population density, daily wage rate of agricultural labour, knowledge of environmental pollution of different districts are explanatory variables. These findings have several policy implications those agencies and policy initiatives operating at local and or national levels concerned with tackling the HIV/AIDS related problems that are primarily concerned with sound health and poverty alleviation agenda.

High child mortality and morbidity in developing countries are closely associated with limited access to and poor quality of health care. In Nepal, previous studies reveal disparities in child health outcomes by gender, geographic location, and across socioeconomic levels. Still, determinants of utilization of child health services have not been rigorously examined while incorporating the spatial dimension. Using four Nepal DHS surveys, we analyze the association of socioeconomic and geographic determinants on child health services utilization over time and across geographic regions. Formal health service coverage is assessed through the use of GIS and measures of spatial association show the likelihood of these pediatric patients seeking diarrhea and/or respiratory illness care. Preliminary results will demonstrate the role of child, mother and household-level socioeconomic determinants in determining health services utilization for children in Nepal, and how the relationships change over time. This study demonstrates the usefulness of the DHS survey and associated spatial data as tools to conduct health services research. In order to improve child mortality and morbidity, it is important to understand the determinants of healthcare use so that appropriate policies and programs can be designed to maximize health services use.

Sleep loss is becoming more prevalent in both developed and developing countries. Evidence accumulated over 40 years indicates a strong association between short and poor sleep and all-cause mortality. People with disadvantaged socioeconomic status present more stress and therefore serious sleep problems. Neighborhood disadvantage can double the health risks of poor sleep for low-income people who live in disadvantaged areas. This study examines the relative effect of individual economic hardship, psychological stress and neighborhood disadvantages on the chance of being poor sleep from 2001 to 2005. It also explores the geographical variations of neighborhood unemployment rate on average prevalence of poor sleep controlling for individual-level SES. Multilevel models and geographically weighted regression (GWR) are used. National representative data (SDTS, 2001 and 2005) is used. Poor sleep is defined by insomnia and restless sleep. Women reported more insomnia and more restless sleep than men. This study found double jeopardy of individual and neighborhood economic hardships on the risk of poor sleep. Certain area of Taiwan has more adverse consequences from neighborhood unemployment rate. As poor sleep increases from 2001 to 2005, it becomes more spatial clustering from 2001 to 2005.

Comparing to Western countries, Taiwan has a higher suicide rate among cancer patients. This study use spatial analysis to understand the distribution pattern of suicide death among cancer patients in Taiwan. The 1995-2007 Cancer Registry Data and Mortality Data from the central government is used. We first used logistic regressions to examine the association of gender, age, type of cancer with the chance of suicide death. Space-time analysis by using Sat Scan statistics is used. The results show that men aged 40-64 years old with cancers that can change appearance are at highest risk of suicide death, and this pattern shows trend of increase with time. Cancer patients with good prognosis, the likelihood of suicide death within short period of time (1-3 months) after diagnosis is significantly lower than those with challenging prognosis. Significant time and space interaction effect is found. The hot spots of suicide are formed between 1999 and 2003, particularly at 2002. The areas mainly include southern part of Taiwan in which the prevalence of smoking and betel nut chewing are particularly high. Future local studies are warranted.

In the first four years of the administration of Felipe Calderón, the homicides rate rose from 8.1 to 22.7 deaths per hundred thousand people and the deaths that occurred on suspicion of criminal rivalry (FOPRD) from 2.6 to 13.5 deaths per hundred thousand inhabitants. Regardless of the rise in violence, the official version is that it is concentrated in a few states or municipalities. For example, the Secretary of the Interior, stated that 70% of FOPRD in 2010 occurred in 7 entities: Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Guerrero, Durango, Mexico State and Nuevo Leon. This paper, noting the change in homicide rates and FOPRD, shows that violence was actually spread in the country during 2007-2010.

This paper uses a methodology to forecast the spatial distribution of households and empirically addresses how the urban sprawl within a geographical boundary evolves over time. Our case study is the city of Belo Horizonte in 2020 and 2030. The city of almost 2.6 million inhabitants is the third most economically important in Brazil and has witnessed an important trend of increasing density and verticalization. The hypotheses used in the simulation were created from the following data sources: the Brazilian demographic census of 2000 and 2010, zoning laws of Belo Horizonte, the Development Plan for the Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte (PDDI, 2010), and spatial data from urban sprawl. This information delineates the characteristics and conditions for future housing growth and density. We use Complex Systems models (cellular automata-CA) within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment to simulate prospective scenarios, and thus achieving precision at very low scales (an intra-urban scale named “blocks”) in 2020 and 2030. The empirical exercise in Belo Horizonte provides a contribution to the analysis of demographic dynamics applied to urban and regional planning, and in particular, how to integrate small area population projections to information on land use and occupation of urban land.