A study of population change led by China’s great famine (1958-1961): based on modified Lee-Carter model

China’s great famine is known as ‘three-year natural disaster’.For the lack of continuous statistical data from 1950 to 1982 in China, traditional research methods were powerless to reconstruct the life table and mortality trends. Calculation of excess deaths during the Great Famine is complicated and confusing.Data used in this study was from China’s six censuses on age distributions, annual age-specific fertility and mortality rates which were also obtained from one-percent population samples survey initialed in 80’s.Modified Lee-Carter model is used in the study. Based on modified Lee-Carter prediction model of morality, this study did reverse prediction with reference to China’s official age-specific mortality data to re-construct and calculate single-age morality and normal deaths if there were no great famine in the last century. In the end, with regard to total deaths estimation calculated by scholars home and abroad, we did estimation research of abnormal deaths led by famine.
It is shown in our result that population dynamics, especially abnormal deaths, during great famine, mainly occurred between 1958 and 1961. If there were no famine, normal deaths would be 43.39 to 43. 85 million. With famine, abnormal deaths are between 16.24 and 23. 37million.