Educational Change and its Impact on Fertility and Demographic Dividend of Future India

This study attempts to explore the effect of educational attainment on the age-sex composition of India’s population; and thus to understand the potential of its emerging demographic dividend till 2051, through multi-state population projection by levels of education. We have followed the framework of IIASA-Oxford’s new rounds of population projections by levels of educational attainment (to be released in the fall of 2012) regarding survival rates and educational attainment. The analysis is based on two scenarios where education profile in India will remain constant as of 2006; and will improve over the time. Further, we have assumed a fertility trend till 2049 based on the recent experience (Sample Registration System, 2000-2010). The projection is based on the population census of India (2001). Recent trend shows that in India, fertility rates across educational groups will not converge in near future. If India continues with current education profile, its TFR will reach 2.26 in 2021 and likely to remain constant, whereas given the assumed educational attainment they will reach the below-replacement-level TFR in 2041, with a slow but continuous decline in fertility rates. The demographic dividend is found to be highly dependent upon the level of education, which increases the productivity.