Marriage and union formation, families and households

Across Europe and the United States, an increasing proportion of births are to unmarried women. That said, many cohabiting relationships are translated to marriage after birth- even in settings where cohabitation is common, such as Norway. Most existing analyses either assume a one-way transition (i.e. marriage to birth), or that these processes are correlated. This analysis argues that in settings where birth triggers marriage, such a causal association cannot be captured by existing approaches. I employ a cross-lagged bivariate regression to model the two processes of union formation and birth incidence, to establish whether such a causal relationship exists, and how it varies across national contexts. Data for this analysis come from the Harmonized Histories, a comparable dataset encompassing the United and 15 countries in Europe, which include retrospective data on both partnership and fertility. Preliminary results indicate that in Norway, birth is indeed a trigger for marriage. In Italy, however, there is no significant effect of birth on union status; consistent with a traditional union formation pattern. In Bulgaria, while there is an initial effect of birth inducing marriage, this effect diminishes- indicating that birth will not trigger a transition to marriage in established cohabiting unions.

The intersection between partnership forms and fertility is increasingly complicated in the United States and European countries. This is due to increasing variety in partnership forms, diversity in fertility and changes in the way that these two processes interact. For example, in countries such as Norway, non-marital cohabitation, birth postponement and births to stable but non-marital partnerships are important, while in Italy, birth is largely restricted to marital relationships, which are universal albeit postponed. This paper uses Latent Class Growth models to evaluate the relationship between partnership and fertility and how this varies across the United States and 15 European countries. These models optimise a number of typical behaviours, and we examine how these are distributed across both birth cohort and national setting, to evaluate not only variations in behaviour, but also differences in how relationships have changed during the 20th century.

Informed by the Theory of Planned Behavior, this study examines the hypothesis that individuals’ background factors are external variables influencing fertility intentions largely through attitudes to positive or negative outcome of having a (another) child, perceived norms, measuring external social pressures for having a/another child, and perceived behavioral control, measuring whether a person is able to have a (another) child. This study uses data from the 2012 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions, conducted by the author among a representative sample of 2,267 married women aged less than 36 and men living with such women in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Multivariate results show that individuals who viewed having a (another) child more detrimental for their personal life, those who felt less social pressures from their peers for having a (another) child, and those who perceived a greater control over resources, required for childbearing, were more likely to intend to have no (more) children or to be unsure rather than to have a/another child. Attitudes and norms had a greater effect on the intention to have a first child, whereas the intention to a second child was largely influenced by attitudes and perceived behavioral control. The implications of the results for polices, aiming to raise fertility, are discussed.

This paper examines the prevalence, trends and determinants of consanguineous marriages in Oman and analyses the effects of consanguinity on reproductive behaviour, pregnancy outcomes and offspring mortality, using data from the 2000 Oman National Health Survey (ONHS). Consanguineous marriages are highly prevalent in Oman (52%). First cousin unions are the most common type of consanguineous unions. Various patterns of consanguinity were observed, some of them are unique in nature. Women’s age at marriage, employment, place of childhood residence and geographical region appeared to be significant determinants of consanguineous marriages. Consanguinity shows a strong association with marital stability, early age at marriage and early childbearing. No appreciable change in the prevalence of consanguineous unions in Oman over the last four decades. However, recent marriage cohorts show slight declining trends. Consanguinity does play important role in determining some of the aspects of reproduction and health of new born, but did not show any detrimental effects on fertility and offspring mortality. The high level of consanguinity and its relevance to reproduction in Oman need to be considered in its public health strategy in a culturally accepted manner.

This paper examines how resolution about uncertainty of spousal HIV risk – through couples voluntary counseling and testing – affects marital stability. In high HIV prevalent areas marriage may not necessarily protect against infection if there is also a high rate of concurrent partnerships; protecting oneself may be even more difficult within a committed relationship. One coping strategy to protect oneself against infection is divorce. We compare marital outcomes among individuals who learned their HIV results either individually, or together as a couple. Using random assignment of individuals to testing as an individual or as a couple we find that couples who learned their HIV results together were 3.5 percentage points less likely to divorce two years after testing, a decrease of 250 percent. Moreover, couples testing significantly reduced worry about HIV risk and beliefs of HIV infection in the future as well as increased overall satisfaction of life.

Across the industrialized world, more and more couples are living together without being married. Although researchers have studied the increase in cohabitation using quantitative data, few have investigated this phenomenon using qualitative data. In this study, we use focus group research to compare the meaning of cohabitation and marriage in Australia and nine countries in Europe. Collaborators conducted eight focus groups in each country, coded each discussion, and produced a standardized country report. We are now analyzing this data to compare results across countries. We examine themes such as the advantages and disadvantages of cohabitation and marriage, barriers and motivations to marry, and the appropriate life stages to marry. We also examine the role of children and policies in potentially prompting marriage, as well as perceptions about the future of marriage. The comparative nature of this research highlights similarities and differences across societies and draws out country-specific distinctions. In addition, because we have stratified the groups by gender and education, we can better understand within-country heterogeneity and look for parallels in group responses across countries. Taken as a whole, this study illuminates how cultures shape decision-making processes fundamental to partnership formation.

In the year 2011, 41 300 children in Sweden living with their biological parents experienced a separation between their parents, a rate of 2.9 percent. The number of children that experienced a separation decreased between the year 2000 and 2005, followed by a slight increase and then once again a decrease during the last years. This study aims to find explanations for how socioeconomic and demographic changes of parents can explain the variation of separations during the first 10 years of the 21st century. This register study includes all children in Sweden living with their biological parents 1999–2011. The method used is event-history analysis using a Cox proportional hazard regression model to calculate the different risks to parental separation. The risk of parental separation varies based on the situation of the children, the family and the parents. The results show that there is a significantly higher risk of separation for children with cohabiting parents as opposed to married parents, for children with a young mother, for households with a low educational levels or if the children have foreign born parents. The decline in separations between 1999 and 2006 can be explained when studying the relative risk for parental separation and controlling for different demographic and socioeconomic variables.

HIV risk is shaped as much by the partners we choose as by the sex we have. In the absence of widespread uptake of couples testing, most partnerships lack information about the prospective partners’ sero-status. This paper seeks to determine how effective individuals are at managing this uncertainty. Previous research suggests that individuals use selective partnership formation to select against risky attributes, such as age, mobility, and widowhood. What remains unclear, however, is how accurate people are at selecting sero-negative partners. This paper examines trends in marital partnership formation and sero-sorting over 13 years using census data from a sero-surveillance site in Southwestern Uganda. Taking into account population composition changes over time, this paper finds evidence of intra-group preference among both sero-positives and sero-negatives. This paper provides the first quantitative analysis of sero-sorting and the effectiveness of partnership selection as an HIV prevention strategy.

The aim of the study is to investigate union formation around year 2000. The data used is based on information from the Swedish Total Population Register and covers the about 30 000 couples that had their first biological child in 2000. The couples are followed from the day that they started living together to a possible separation or the end of 2010. The couple is assumed to live together if both partners are registered in the same dwelling unit. In the study different events of family formation are studied, moving in together, getting married, and having the first and possibly more children. The timing and occurrence of these events are compared between couples with different level of education and between couples born in or outside of Sweden. Comparisons are also made with respect to the couples’ age and age difference. Results show for example that although a majority of the couples have their first child as a cohabiting couple, eventually most couples do get married. The propensity to marry is higher for highly educated couples and for couples where one or both partners are born outside Sweden.

The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of childbearing outside of a relationship and to compare this group with couples having a child while living together. Using cross sectional data from the Swedish Total Population Register around 10 percent of all children are born to parents registered at different dwelling units and are assumed to be born to a single mother. Using a longitudinal approach we are able to study this group more in detail. In this study the couples having their first child in 2000 are followed from five years before the child is born to the end of 2010. We find that the share born outside of a relationship is probably smaller than previously assumed. In many cases the couple moves in together after the child is born and in some cases the couple separates before the child is born. Only 3 percent of all couples having their first child in 2000 are never found living together. Couples having a child without ever living together are on average younger than other couples and more often have a low level of education, but this group is far from homogenous.