Multiple faces of the health transition

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) account for about one-third of all deaths worldwide and more than half of these occurred in developing countries. Little is known about the demographic impact of the disease in Africa. This paper used demographic methods to examine the impact of cardiovascular disease mortality on the overall mortality in South Africa. We used the mortality data from the WHO Statistical Information System (WHOSIS) for South Africa in 2005 to estimate gains in life expectancy and chances of survival had cardiovascular disease been eliminated from the population in 2005, given the age-and cause-specific mortality conditions of the period. The results showed that CVD accounted for more than one-tenth of male and female deaths in this population. There was a probable gain in life expectancy at birth (5.2 years for males and 0.9 year for females) and chances of survival also increased when CVD was eliminated. Effective intervention need to be put in place in South Africa so as to minimize the risk factors of the disease. This will eventually help to improve the health status in the country which has already been over-burdened with HIV/AIDS.

Smoking has been the most important non-linear determinant of mortality in low-mortality countries. With changes in smoking behaviour, projections of smoking-attributable and of all-cause mortality including smoking become more important, especially for health care programs and insurance. However, these projections might be sensible to the indirect techniques to estimate smoking-attributable mortality being used.

We estimate future smoking-attributable and all-cause mortality and analyse its sensitivity to different indirect techniques for estimating smoking-attributable mortality.

Future smoking-attributable mortality is obtained by applying different indirect estimation methods to projected lung cancer mortality, e.g. Peto-Lopez and, Preston-Glei-Wilmoth methods. Lung cancer mortality rates are extrapolated using age-period-cohort analysis. Non-smoking related mortality is projected using the Lee-Carter model.

Smoking-attributable mortality will further decline for males and first increase but then decline for females. The different indirect estimation techniques have an effect on smoking-attributable mortality levels and its age structure. Furthermore, they will lead to higher differences in projected smoking-attributable and all-cause mortality for women because of their shorter history in smoking.

This study has explored the relationship between marital status and survival possibility with respect to both sexes using an indirect estimation. Several patterns emerge from the analysis of survival differentials by marital status. Any change in marital status often leads to a loss of socio economic status; particularly in the case of widows though differing across countries or states depending on the socio-cultural condition (e.g. widows in Kerala enjoy the same survival chance as married women, due to a better socio cultural landscape). Results show that marriage contributes to a larger increase in survival chance for both males and females. Changes in the marital status have deleterious implications for women as compared to men, as men always tends to remarry in the event of any change in the marital status. In India the joint survival likelihood depends on several factors like age at marriage, spousal age gap and men’s risky life styles. The studies on age at marriage and sex related differences in mortality rates point out a general age gap of five years between males and females and also male mortality especially adult male mortality is extremely high in India. However, in this study such factors have not been taken into consideration. The derived results strongly affirm that marriage circle expand survival chances.

The aim of our study is a critical analysis of modern methods of calculation of economic damage and the development (modification) of the optimal methodologies to assess the extent of economic losses due to mortality in the Far East Federal District, taking into account the valuation of the average life. This study is based on the concept of human capital, which considers health as one of the most important conditions for social and economic development of any territory.
Overall the Far East the total damage from the mortality of all ages increased by 2.8 times in 2003-2010, amounting to 42.7 billion of rubles or 2.4% of GRP in 2010. In Russia the growth rate of this indicator amounted to 2.6 times (in 2010 - 798 billion rubles or 2.5% of GDP). These estimates show that the mortality rate in the Far East and Russia as a whole, is associated with very significant economic losses, which couldn’t be ignored in the current circumstances, considering the low level of health, high mortality in the working age and the reduction of population.

Objective: Given the recent increase of violence in Mexico we want to analyze the levels, trends and impact of mortality due to homicides between 2000 and 2010, at a national and state level. Material and Methods: Homicide mortality statistics from Mexico’s INEGI were used. We calculated the standardized mortality rates and the years of life lost (YLL) proposed by Arriaga between 15 and 49 years of age using an assumption of no mortality between the selected ages. Results: Between 2000 and 2007, a decreasing trend for the national mortality rates was observed (10.8 to 8.2 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants respectively); the same was presented with the YLL (a decrease of 23.95%). But in the last three years (2008-2010) the incidence of homicides increased significantly, reflected in both mortality rates (a 180.23% increase) and YLL (causing a decrease of 0.17 years in the national temporary life expectancy). Discussion: Mortality due to homicides has increased significantly in Mexico in recent years; this after a period of a continued decline in mortality for this cause at the beginning of the decade. However, these results don’t imply that violence is a generalized problem, given that we show that it concentrates mainly in some states.

In the Caucasus region, data quality has always been at issue, but since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the issue becomes more acute. In the 1990s mortality rates published by national statistics of Armenia and Georgia were far from the real levels. In this paper, we are going to focus on the third Caucasian country Azerbaijan and to propose adjusted infant mortality rates.
For the 1990s and the 2000s, it is possible to rely on results issued of recent demographic surveys to estimate the under-registration of infant deaths. After producing new estimates for the last two decades we discuss possible assumptions to correct the levels of infant mortality during the Soviet period, using information on mortality by month of age and by cause of death below age 1.

Abstract
Reducing child mortality rates in Tanzania is a challenging issue and a public health emergency in the country. This study, based on Tanzanian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2008 data, presents a method for estimating specific causes of child mortality. Tanzania’s child mortality rate was ranked 27th globally the rate was above the world average. Study findings shows wealth index was the major contributor in the odds of child mortality. The preceding birth interval approximately 76% spaced their births at 24 months or more. Hazard rates findings focus on specific causes of child mortality based on the mother’s fertility behaviors, such as birth intervals, age at childbirth and multiplicity of birth, rather than on other determinants of socioeconomic and health care services. Children belonging to the group of higher birth order faced the odds for dying of 0.17. Age at first birth became significant with the odds for survival increasing by 1.68 times, with the increase in age of the mother at first childbirth. There are two important variables, health care facilities and health care service providers, not showing any statistical effect on child mortality. This means health infrastructure and service providers need to work hard. Therefore, further in-depth study is strongly recommended.

BACKGROUND The disabled elderly, who utilize more health services than their counterparts, put a heavy pressure on the health system. However, our knowledge of the disease pattern in disability burden among the Chinese elderly remains limited.

METHODS Based on a nationally representative data, we used the attribution method to obtain disability prevalence by disease and then employed the Sullivan method to produce life expectancy with disability (LED) by disease. The analyses were carried out at both disease group level and individual disease level.

RESULTS At the disease group level, ear, eye, circulatory and musculoskeletal diseases and injury and poisoning were the 5 leading causes of disability burden in terms of their contributions to disability prevalence and LED. At the individual disease level, presbycusis, cataract, cerebrovascular disease, osteoarthritis and unclassified injury totally accounted for 64% of disabilities and caused males and females aged 60 to have 3.04 and 3.76 years of LED, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS Along with the epidemiologic transition, chronic diseases have become the predominant contributor to disability burden among the elderly population in China. And, presbycusis, cataract, cerebrovascular disease, osteoarthritis and unclassified injuries should be the priorities in fighting ag

This research aims to assess the importance of wealth and women empowerment perpectives which may determine maternal mortality in two provinces, West Sumatera and West Java. The data input comes from 2010 Population Census. Economic groups will be indicated from housing condition. Based on several variables of housing condition a wealth index will be built. Then every household will be grouped into five group based on the wealth index. Maternal death and live birth which is recorded during 2010 Population Census will be used as input data for pregnancy related mortality in every economic group. This calculation is done separately for West Sumatera and West Java.

The further analysis is aimed to find out the underlying factors of maternal mortality deferential between economic groups. Some variables which are available in Population Census are used as potential determinant of maternal mortality differential. The variables will cover several aspects such as population structure, fertility and women empowerment. The descriptive analysis will be done in each province. Therefore, the result can reveal the similarity or differences of determinants in West Java and West Sumatera. This study is also aimed to assess whether economic status is more powerful than the other factors to determine maternal mortality.

John C. Caldwell in 1986 wrote about low mortality among selected countries in his article “Routes to low mortality in poor countries” what Kuhn later on to mark twenty-fifth year of Colwell achievement did a similar work to identify the modern route to low mortality . Both these articles are interesting in explaining how poor countries did well in mortality decline when in 1980s report came saying how mortality decline “slowed down or stagnated” in many parts of the world . This is an attempt to identify the positive outliers in mortality among the Indian states. We did found out some poor Indian states doing relatively better but unlike what Coldwell and Kuhn found out, we can see two separate lists of positive outlier states for IMR and life expectancy at birth. Literacy among females still holds a very important role, positive outlier states apart from having high literacy rate gender gap in literacy is least. While on the other end, Arunachal Pradesh is a positive outlier in IMR has low female literacy rate but literacy among male is also low in comparison to other states. It also looks at how some factors play a dual and opposite role.