Can the speed of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa be accelerated?

The objective of this study, therefore, is to examine the fertility levels, trends, differentials and to try to explain the causes of the observed fertility change. An attempt to speculate on future prospects for fertility is also undertaken. The primary sources of data are the censuses and different surveys conducted in Botswana since the mid-1980s. Overall four population censuses, four Botswana Family Health Surveys and two Botswana Demographic Surveys were used in the analysis. In this paper we use data from the Botswana Family Health Survey III and IV to do detailed analysis on the relationships between fertility and its correlates. Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to address various aspects of the research question. Using various fertility measures, there is evidence that suggests that sustained fertility decline is taking place in the country. There appears to an overwhelming evidence to suggest that fertility in Botswana will continue to decline in the future given all the changing socio-economic, demographic and cultural factors. All the factors that promote fertility decline appear to operate in the country and thus will work to ensure sustained fertility decline.

This study examines the complex interactions of social transformation and childbearing patterns that result in the empirical patterns of fertility during the five decades from the 1960s to 2011. South Africa is widely expected to experience a below-replacement level of fertility before other countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa. However, the trend of fertility especially in the past decade erodes confidence in the imminence of a replacement level of fertility. From the onset of a universal decline during the 1960s, the national total fertility rate has declined only slowly with no decisive downward trend since the beginning of the third millennium. Data from the 2011 census, recent birth registration statistics and information from other sources do not suggest the prospects of a rapid decline in national fertility in the short term. Estimates of recent total fertility rate since 2007 range narrowly between 2.7 and 2.8. We argue that in South Africa and other societies with no clear evidence of a sharp decline in recent fertility, the prevailing trend could be an outcome of reproductive strategies that respond to practical challenges of improving the material well-being of women and couples in the society.

This paper considers prospects for fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa in light of existing fertility desires, as captured in recent household-level surveys conducted from the 1970s to the present (ideal number of children, desire for another child). We show that pre-transition and at the onset of transition, fertility desires are noticeably higher in Africa than in other major regions (Asia, Latin America). We also examine recent trends in fertility desires, with a focus on countries that have already experienced some fertility decline. The analysis proceeds to divide fertility is into wanted and unwanted components, and simulations of further fertility decline are carried out. From these it is clear that existing fertility desires are incompatible with a fall in fertility to low levels (i.e. TFR<4.0), leading to the conclusion that African fertility declines in a fundamental sense will be demand-driven. The paper concludes with commentary on strategies for lowering fertility desires, with particular attention to the potential causal impact on fertility desires of expansion of family planning services. We stress that while such an impact is very plausible on theoretical grounds, the empirical evidence that this occurs remains weak.

In sub-Saharan Africa, its fertility transition has been estimated to have started in many countries in the 1990s, even though there are still some countries that are not considered to have started their fertility declines. After the onset of fertility transitions in many countries, Bongaarts (2006, 2008) pointed out possible stalls in fertility declines in many transition countries in late 1990s and early 2000s. As more recent data have become available especially those after 2005 to 2010/11, it is time to reevaluate the trend in fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa in general and those countries considered to have had stalls in fertility declines in early 2000s. In this regard, DHS data of 41 sub-Saharan African countries since the 1980s will be used. The study will analyze changing policy agenda and macroeconomic situations in the context of sub-Saharan Africa since the 1990s, such as the repositioning of family planning programmes, an increasing emphasis on the achievements of MDGs especially the reduction of maternal mortality, and the recent declining trend in HIV prevalence. In sum, this study will look into policy influences on ongoing fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa and provide their future perspectives on the continuous fertility decline.

There has been concern about the progress of fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: in many parts of the continent family sizes continue to be large. However, examining fertility rates by rural and urban area reveals that the decline is well underway in some populations. This research will investigate whether there is a relationship between low fertility and birth interval length in urban areas of East Africa. Birth spacing practices which served to delay births were an important element of fertility dynamics in many traditional communities. Current research shows that birth spacing continues be an important feature of fertility, and in a number of countries intervals have lengthened to five years or more.
Regression models were used to analyse birth interval length by rural and urban area in four East African countries. Early analysis shows that, overall, intervals are longest and lengthening most rapidly in urban areas. Further analysis of these changes will give an understanding of the potential influence that lengthening birth intervals will have upon the fertility transition: the predominance of tempo changes may explain the slow nature of the decline. However, if intervals continue to increase it will be impossible for populations to return to high fertility levels.

The slow pace of fertility declines observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, and especially West and francophone Africa, do not seem due to commensurate lulls in the general pace of development, as conventionally measured by urbanization, progress in education and wealth indexes. Using quantitative and qualitative data from the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System (which, since 2008, has followed 80 000 residents at the periphery of the capital of Burkina Faso), we examine why fertility levels remain relatively high in African cities. By examining which types of city dwellers (the urban poor, both uneducated and more educated, but also the uneducated rich) still want and have large families (high fertility intentions which are often ambivalent) and why that is so, we ultimately aim to shed some light on the reasons why fertility declines have been slower than expected on the continent. By examining barriers to access to family planning that remain in the city, especially for the uneducated poor, we will show that existing programs are not able to overcome the widespread ambivalent desires for family limitation, because of the poor quality of care (very little information on contraceptive methods is given), and high total costs of contraception (when including extra costs such as gloves, etc.)

Levels, patterns and trends of male fertility are little documented in sub-Saharan Africa. Most existing studies have been conducted at the local level, and are relatively old. Yet, data collected in DHS contain valuable information on male fertility, and have largely been untapped. The objectives of this paper are (1) to evaluate to what extent the DHS data in sub-Saharan Africa can be used to measure levels, patterns and trends of male fertility, and (2) to provide a broad overview of male fertility levels, patterns and trends in Africa. Three methods are compared: the own children method, the crisscross method, and the date of last birth method. Results suggest that the own children method is the most appropriate to measure male fertility in a wide range of countries and periods. Preliminary results show three broad patterns of male fertility. They also show declines in male fertility in several sub-Saharan African countries.

This study draws upon data collected in urban and rural Senegal and cohort analysis, to explore changes in women’s fertility preferences and the contradiction between preferred and actual fertility behaviors. Regression analyses by cohorts is used to determine the factors affecting women’ fertility preferences over time. The total fertility rate in Senegal remains high at 5 children per woman and the country has one of the highest unmet needs for family planning services in the West Africa region. This study’s findings therefore will provide policymakers with an understanding of the potential demand for fertility control and help in formulating policies to reduce fertility and improve maternal health.

Western Africa is the second most populous region in Africa after Eastern Africa. Population Reference Bureau projects that by mid-2050 the population of Western Africa will increase from its current 313 million to 792 million. The region’s high population is associated with persistent high and stalling fertility. In contrast with other African regions, more than half of countries in Western Africa have Total Fertility Rate (TFR) above 5 children per woman. Many previous studies on fertility transition in Western Africa concentrated attention on access and use of contraceptives. This study presents preliminary results of investigation on trend and patterns of singlehood among women and its implication for fertility decline in Western Africa. The study proposed that as the rate of singlehood among women rises, with or without any significant increase in contraceptive use, fertility levels in West African countries will decline. Singlehood in this study is limited to never married women age 30 and above. Data were derived from Demographic and Health Surveys and Population Reference Bureau Data Sheet. Preliminary result of the investigation shows that countries with increased singlehood also have TFR that declined. Where singlehood fluctuated, TFR also fluctuated.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the obstacles that lead to low modern contraception use and identify the opportunities that accelerate the utilization of modern family planning methods among women in Sudan during the period between 2006 and 2010. The prevalence of utilization of modern contraception was around only 7 percent and the prevalence of unmet needs was more than 23 percent in 2006. However, these rates have been significantly changed in 2010.
Data used in the analysis come from two national representative surveys, Sudan Household health Survey in 2006 and 2010. Samples of 6173 and 6065 married women in reproductive age in 2006 and 2010 respectively are used in the analysis. Furthermore, primary qualitative comes from 5 FGDs discussion with women and 3 FGDs with village midwifes, 17 in-depth interviews with decision makers and stakeholders in 2012 used in the study. Bi-, multi-variate, and thematic analyses demonstrate that certain factors related to cultural and women’s status aspects as well as factors related to health system in Sudan are the most significant factors that constitute challenges in contraception utilization. Some policy implications of the findings and suggested solution to improving the contraception prevalence under limited resources are discussed