Fertility intentions over time

The decreasing child female to male ratio has been one of the important concerns in India’s demography in recent times. A general public concern of late is the apparent association of child female to male ratio and fertility decline. Different states of India are in various stages of fertility transition. It will be worthwhile to identify the states, which contribute to the decline in child sex ratio at all India level. A decomposition exercise is attempted in this study. The decomposition shows that change in the female-male ratio is mainly guided by the “total effect of changes in the female-male ratio” for both the age-groups (0-4 and 10-14). States with initial low female-male ratios and faster decline in population growth have contributed to all India female to male decline to some extent. Now the question arises, why the states which have less discrimination against female children, and also have insignificant use of newer technology to identify sex at fetal stage have witnesses a decline in the FMR? It may happen that once the fertility transition will be over female to male ratios will stabilize. In case of states which are identified as disturbing, stringent measures to curb the sex selective abortions are required.

While the existence of son preference in India is well-known in the literature, a key gap in our understanding of the determinants of son preference relates to potential differences that may exist between religious groups. This paper examines data from two waves of the National Family and Health Survey, 1998-99 and 2005-06 to determine if and to what extent does son preference differ between Hindus and Muslims, the two largest religious groups in India. The analysis of two indicators of son preference is proposed: latent son preference, measured by women’s self-reported preferred sex composition of children. A second indicator is proposed: revealed son preference, measured by parity progression ratios, conditional on sex of any previous children, indicating actual son-targeting fertility behaviors. Thus we will be able to compare and contrast differences between Hindus and Muslims related to both latent preferences and actual behaviors. The preliminary analysis of latent preferences shows that Muslim have lower son preference compared to Hindus. The effect of religion remains strongly significant after controlling for known socioeconomic determinants of son preference, suggesting that religious beliefs and practices especially among the majority Hindus may be a key cultural explanation for the persistence of son preference.

The information related to the reproductive preferences has become very important for understanding fertility behavior. However, the quality of such type of data is another important issue. The present study is based on a large-scale longitudinal study undertaken in rural India with the objective of understanding how the quality of family planning services is linked with contraceptive behaviour. The 2002-2003 longitudinal survey (wave-2) in rural India was designed to conduct a re-interview of ever married women who were interviewed during the second round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2) conducted in 1998-99 (wave-1) (IIPS and ORC Macro 2000). Result clearly shows that around 39 percent women have given the same response in both the surveys. Moreover, around 20 percent women reported at least one child fewer in the second wave whereas around 14 percent women reported at least one child greater in the second wave. However, around 27 percent women have given non-numeric response/no response either in the wave-1 or wave-2. Further, the reporting of ideal number of girls was found to be more consistent than ideal reporting of boys. Result also shows the consistency of reporting ideal number of children by different states of India.

This study aims to provide social, demographic and economic characteristics of Japanese married couples who achieved their early expected family size during the first decade of the 21st century. Using the latest panel data of nearly 30,000 men and women, the study provides detailed profiles of married couples who achieved their initial levels of expected family size based on ten years of observation. By taking advantages of longitudinal data, we examines the effects of important but often neglected factors such as gender role attitudes, childrearing experiences, spousal share of household chores and economic contributions, and economic stabilities of the household. The survey design also allows us to examine how adjustment is made between spouses when their fertility intentions are mismatched. To supplement our findings, we also conduct another set of the analysis on the changes in couples’ expected family size using the same dataset. This supplemented analysis sheds light on the evolution of the fertility intentions and aims to examine the individual characteristics associated with declining intended family size. By integrating the two results from the panel data analysis, this study seeks the link between subjective and behavioral aspects of low fertility in the 21st century Japan.

This paper utilizes data collected in 2011 from a randomized cluster survey conducted in three rural districts in Tanzania to examine whether women who reported use of contraceptives did so for the purposes of stopping or spacing childbirth. A total of 3,211 women were interviewed on reproductive and child health related issues, including fertility and family planning behavior. Women were asked if they would like to have any more children and if so at what time. Pregnant women were asked about the intentionality of their pregnancy. The analysis will tabulate bivariate relationships between relevant independent and dependent variables and develop a multinomial logit model examining the determinants of respondent classification into a five category polytomous outcome variable, on the implementation of reproductive preferences conditional on various independent variables. Analysis is ongoing and current results are tentative. The contraceptive prevalence rate in the study area mirrors the national measure obtained through the 2010 DHS. While the majority of met need amongst users is motivated by desire to space pregnancies, limiting is the dominant motivation amongst women reporting an unmet need for family planning. Implications for reproductive health programs and policies in Tanzania are reviewed and discussed.

Evidence shows that the traditional binary classification of fertility intentions into either ‘spacing’ or ‘limiting’ cannot adequately explain the lengthening of birth intervals in some Sub-Saharan African populations. This phenomenon is thought to be a result of reproductive uncertainty within a population. Survey data suggests that birth interval lengthening is widely occurring in urban areas, where a myriad of reproductive expectations exist and women face increased economic and social instability. Using data from six focus group discussions conducted in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, this research examines women’s perspectives on childbearing and explores their fertility intentions in order to determine whether there is evidence of reproductive ambivalence. The results show that women desire long spaces between their births, which is a result of factors both related to, and independent of, the age of a woman’s youngest child. And, whilst they demonstrate certainty about the number of children they desire in their lifetime, it is also common to find women who have been unable to commit to these goals. Women’s intentions regarding the timing of their births and their desired numbers of children reveal reproductive ambivalence that is a result of the contradictory pressures on their households and relationships.

The slow pace of fertility declines observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, and especially West and francophone Africa, do not seem due to commensurate lulls in the general pace of development, as conventionally measured by urbanization, progress in education and wealth indexes. Using quantitative and qualitative data from the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System (which, since 2008, has followed 80 000 residents at the periphery of the capital of Burkina Faso), we examine why fertility levels remain relatively high in African cities. By examining which types of city dwellers (the urban poor, both uneducated and more educated, but also the uneducated rich) still want and have large families (high fertility intentions which are often ambivalent) and why that is so, we ultimately aim to shed some light on the reasons why fertility declines have been slower than expected on the continent. By examining barriers to access to family planning that remain in the city, especially for the uneducated poor, we will show that existing programs are not able to overcome the widespread ambivalent desires for family limitation, because of the poor quality of care (very little information on contraceptive methods is given), and high total costs of contraception (when including extra costs such as gloves, etc.)

Impact of societal instability and crisis on fertility intentions, attitudes and behavior is yet to be analyzed and researched. Its effect on fertility is obvious, however the direction and scope of the impact largely remains unknown. The existing empirical evidence suggests different and often times mutually exclusive interpretations. For instance, the lowest post-war fertility rated was observed in Russia at 1999, the year that followed the huge monetary default. On the other hand, recent increase in fertility has been observed in Iceland, the country that suffered the most during current economic crisis. Increased fertility in some areas of New York after September, 11, 2001 was not accidental, too.
Most of researchers have studied the impact of economic instabilities or natural or man-made catastrophes on political and social instability. In this paper I present the results of the study of mostly social and political instabilities on fertility intentions, attitudes and behavior. I incorporate the advanced version of uncertainty reduction theory and apply it to analysis of fertility dynamics in USSR/Russia at the periods of both stability and various types of social and political instability.

This study draws upon data collected in urban and rural Senegal and cohort analysis, to explore changes in women’s fertility preferences and the contradiction between preferred and actual fertility behaviors. Regression analyses by cohorts is used to determine the factors affecting women’ fertility preferences over time. The total fertility rate in Senegal remains high at 5 children per woman and the country has one of the highest unmet needs for family planning services in the West Africa region. This study’s findings therefore will provide policymakers with an understanding of the potential demand for fertility control and help in formulating policies to reduce fertility and improve maternal health.

Using longitudinal data from the Household Survey on “Family and Social Subjects” carried out in Italy between 2003 and 2007 we study fertility intentions of Italian women in reproductive ages by their mother’s employment status when they were 14 years old. We expect mother’s working experiences during childhood to be a key determinant of fertility intentions especially for younger women at the beginning of their reproductive career who may better anticipate the conflict between work and family life than their counterparts whose mother was at home. Preliminary results suggest that mother’s employment status does not directly influence daughter’s child-number intentions and daughter’s probability to have a child in the inter-survey period given that it was planned in the short period before. However, the experience of having had a working mother during childhood strengthens the correlation between mother’s and daughter’s educational level and decreases the likelihood to revise downwards the initially stated childbearing plans after the birth of a second child.