Recent fertility change: quantum and tempo effects

This study attempted to examine the timing and intention of fertility among the women in India. To understand the changes in the childbearing behaviour over the period of time a cohort analysis is performed. Fertility timing is captured through initial birth interval among different birth cohort of women. It is also attempted to identify the determinants of intention for a large family. The third round of nationally representative survey ‘District Level Health Survey (DLHS-3)-2007-08’ has been used for the analysis which provides fertility information of women by birth cohort since 1958 till 1993. Results indicate that the timing to have child vary between different birth cohort of women. Women’s intention to have a child after having two children is decreasing over the period. The effect of education and household economic status is still significant predictor of fertility intention, but the magnitude of the effect has changed over the period.

ABSTRACT: Ghana is among the few African countries that began to experience fertility decline in the late 1980’s. The fertility decline was drastic between 1988 and 1998 when the TFR dropped from 6.4 to 4.6. The rate of fertility decline however slowed down since then, the TFR having dropped from 4.6 in 1998 to 4.4 in 2003 and then to 4.0 in 2008. The study examines trends in the proximate determinants of fertility (sexual activity, contraception, and postpartum infecundability) in Ghana over a decade (from 1998 to 2008), with a view to finding out their contributions to fertility decline. The findings show that the fertility suppressing effects of sexual activity are more important than the effects of postpartum infecundability and contraception in explaining fertility levels and trends in Ghana.The study further shows that the effect of abortion contributed significantly in the fertility transition. It is recommended that the existing family planning programme should be strengthened and expanded through the provision of family planning clinics to areas with no such facilities

Attempts have been made to explain why acceptance of family planning and actual use of methods remain low in Nigeria. Such factors which mainly include individual and household characteristics are people’s perception about family planning, religion, education and occupation, number of living children as well as the empowerment status of women among others. Little or no effort has been made to examine the effect of family’s wealth and economic status on couples’ attitude to childbearing and the prospect for fertility decline and contraceptive use among Nigerian couples in a peri-urban community. This study is based on the baseline data from a longitudinal couple study in a peri-urban community, Ipetumodu, in Osun State, Nigeria collected between April and May, 2010. The study indicates that couples’ fertility preference and contraceptive use are largely influenced by their socio-economic status. For instance, contraceptive use is least among respondents in the lower quintile (28.6 as against 35.7 among those with upper quintile). The study highlights the role economic status of households in couple’s reproductive behaviour.

This paper examined age-pattern of childbearing in terms of [de]compression in age-specific
fertility rates in India and major states. This study followed a two part methodology: first,
compression in ages-specific fertility rates are estimated in terms of skewness and standard
deviation. Second, age bands in which compression in childbearing taking place are identified.
The results reveal that age-pattern of childbearing is highly associated with total fertility rate
levels: with decline in total fertility rates, the age-specific fertility rates are compressing, such
compression is mostly at peak ages (20-30 years). However, there is huge state level and ruralurban
disparity in age-pattern of childbearing by levels of total fertility rates. The state with
greater decline in fertility or currently with low fertility rate show evidence of compression in
age-specific fertility rates while states with lower decline in fertility or currently with high
fertility show greater dispersion in age-specific fertility rates. Urban areas evident for
compression in age-specific fertility rates while rural areas still shows dispersion in age-specific
fertility rates. Compressions in age-pattern of childbearing yet occur in high fertility rates and
rural areas of India.

Fertility transition is in progress in India at varying levels and at different speeds across the states. Odisha is one of the undeveloped states of India in terms of socio-economic indicators have also shows transition in fertility. Using the data from Censuses, Sample Registration System and National Family Health Surveys, this paper examine the timing and nature of fertility transition in the state. Results show that there is a slow decline in fertility in the state till mid-80s and a faster decline after that. The decomposition analysis revealed that a fall in marital fertility has made a greater impact on fertility than age at marriage. An examination of Bongaarts proximate determinants of fertility in Odisha revealed that contraceptive prevalence plays a dominant role in fertility decline. It is seen that age at marriage has risen marginally though that is not reflected in a corresponding rise in age at first birth.

Since late 1980s Russia has experienced a steep decline of fertility. The nadir of it was reached in 1999, right after the default, with the total fertility rate reaching the low of 1.17. In academic community there is a debate of what this trend is attributed to. Some scholars link it with the postponed effect of the population policy that was implemented in the former USSR in the 1980s. Others make a claim that Russia is currently on the modernization path and, similarly to the countries of Western Europe, is undergoing the second demographic transition.
Both explanations are related to the tempo compound of the fertility process. In the paper I provide a detailed analysis of why these two explanations account for only a small part of the phenomenon of the steep decline of fertility.
The analysis led to conclusion that tempo effect on the decline of fertility in Russia is very limited. I elaborate on the reason that, most likely, is the major cause of the low fertility in the country. That is deterioration of the standards of living, collapse of national currency, irregularity in paying salary that was typical for the 1990’s and other economic factors. In this analysis I made an attempt to divorce the purely economic factor from the factor described as the deterioration of the “greenhouse effect”.

The fertility decline has been observed in most regions of the developing world over the last three decades. Major fertility decline have occurred in populations that are poor, with large rural and illiterate strata. This situation raises questions about the factors responsible for fertility transition. This paper critically examines fertility levels, trends, and the role of proximate determinants of fertility decline by economic status (poor/non-poor) in selected Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines and Vietnam. Economic status is measured by computing a ‘wealth index’, i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis. In analyzing the major proximate determinants we applied Bongaarts model to data obtained from three rounds of DHS surveys. The contribution of each of the major proximate variables has examined through the decomposition of TFR for three points of time. Results indicate that fertility is comparatively higher among poor than non-poor women however; it is declining gradually probably due to the increasing CPR and diffusion of idea of perceived benefits of small family size. Contraceptive practice is playing the key role in fertility decline among poor and non-poor women.

Recent studies suggest a rapid change in fertility preferences among young adults across sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of Malawians’ fertility preferences to a variety of hypothetical (but common) events that may alter fertility preferences and intentions. Using new data from the Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT) study in southern Malawi, we analyze expected changes in desired number of children (quantum) and the pace of childbearing (tempo) in response to this variety of events. We further employ the Coombs scale, a measure of underlying family size preferences, to predict the direction of both dimensions of fertility preferences. To measure tempo change, the survey questions respondents about their preferred timing to next birth. We find 1) that both the quantum and tempo dimensions of fertility preferences are most responsive to AIDS-related conditions and 2) that young adults’ preferences are relatively impervious to changing economic conditions and family issues. Our results indicate that the generalized AIDS epidemic in Malawi is critically important for understanding young people’s fertility preferences and, ultimately, their behaviors.

The prime objective of present study is to analyze the dynamics of family formation in India from a marriage cohort perspective and comparison of these aspects for the two Indian states: Bihar and Kerala, the states having vast differences between them with respect to age at marriage and childbearing, progression of births etc. The family-building process is studied under following points: initiation of reproductive life and tempo of childbearing and transition from one birth to the next and so on. For studying the dynamics of progression from one birth to the next, parity progression ratio (PPR) approach is used and for recent marriage cohorts PPR’s are estimated using a technique that makes use of the truncated distribution of closed and open birth intervals. It is observed that the age at marriage has risen marginally though that is not reflected in a corresponding rise in age at first birth in Bihar. But Kerala reflects the rise of 4-5 years in age at marriage and childbearing from earlier to recent marriage cohorts. PPR’s for successive marriage cohorts are decreasing continuously with time. Probabilities of progression towards higher order births are substantially lower in Kerala as compared to Bihar for all marriage cohorts.

The fertility curve has traditionally shown a bell-shaped pattern common in all human populations and all time periods. However recently, the fertility pattern of some developed populations exhibits a clear transition from its classical shape to a more complicated one in terms of a distortion in early ages. This heterogeneity might be associated to some extent to marital and non-marital fertility. Additionally in the USA this heterogeneity might be attributed to ethnic differences in fertility behavior. In this work a flexible parametric model adequate for describing both the old and the new shape of the fertility curve is fitted to the age-specific fertility rates of the total population of the UK and the USA for each single year during the last twenty year period. Then in order to examine the development of the fertility curve through time, the evolution of the parameter values is each population is considered. Finally in order to examine the hypothesis of racial heterogeneity of fertility behavior, the model is fitted to age-specific fertility rates of the USA of the three major ethnic groups and to age-specific fertility rates of the UK of married and unmarried women.