Recent fertility change: quantum and tempo effects

Estimation of fertility level in Nigeria is discussed in this study using the indirect estimation technique by Reverse Survival method. This technique was applied to data from censuses and surveys for Nigeria to obtain the Crude Birth Rates used for discussion on the 1963, 1991, 2006 censuses; 1991 Post Enumeration Survey (PES), 1981/82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS) AND 1990, 1999, 2003 AND 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. The results of the analyses reveal that even although the data reported in the Nigerian censuses and surveys are a little bit poor in quality, fertility level in Nigeria seem to be declining at a very slow rate and it is however considerably high in relation to the levels of other developing and developed countries. Policy and programme implementation aimed at improving access and utilization of sexual reproductive health services, should therefore ensure specific focus by zone, state, age groups, urban/rural places of residence, marital status, level of education and literacy, wealth. A “one size fit all” approach for Family Planning programming should be discouraged.

The fertility level implied by the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data has been discussed in this paper using both the reported and adjusted current and life-time fertility measures. The Brass P/F ratio method and Brass Relational Gompertz model were applied to obtain estimates of age-specific fertility rates(ASFRs) and total fertility rate(TFRs) used for the discussions. The 2008 NDHS data were used to discuss the current fertility level and age pattern in Nigeria. The 1990, 1999 and 2003NDHS data were used in combination with the 2008 NDHS data to discuss the fertility trend in Nigeria, while comparing them with data from some selected countries of the world. The results of the analyses show that the fertility level in Nigeria is high when compared with the fertility levels in the developed and some developing countries. However, there are indications that it is declining though at a slow pace. There are indications also that the true level and trend of fertility in Nigeria may be confounded by the intra-national differences in levels and trend. Effective family planning service delivery and empowerment of women economically and academically have been recommended as a way of improving the pace of fertility decline.

Reproductive trajectories in India demonstrate an exceptional pattern not seen elsewhere in other low and middle income countries. Births are increasingly compressed in shorter intervals and many Indian women complete childbearing at very young ages. This is particularly the case in Andhra Pradesh where an intensive sterilization-driven family planning program brought down fertility rate way below replacement level in a relatively short period. The Andhra model, although successful in reducing fertility rates, is certainly extreme in India. The critical question is: to what extent other large, high fertility states follow the Andhra model? Using birth history data from three successive rounds of the National Family Health Surveys, this paper uses multi-state analysis to investigate the age-period-cohort variations determining the sequencing and timing of reproductive events in Indian states. The accelerated childbearing pattern depicted in Andhra is rapidly converging in other medium/high fertility states even among young educated cohorts of women.

After sharp fall in the 1990s, Iran’s fertility decline slowed down during the 2000s fallen to around replacement level. Following two decades of fertility control policies, more recently, the Iranian Government has been concerned that fertility will fall to a very low level and a draft pronatalist policy has been designed and is being put to the parliament. The concern has been based on estimates that Iran’s current fertility is as low as 1.6, but there are questions about the reliability of estimates of fertility. There is a near-to-complete birth registration system but how near-to-complete is unknown. Own children estimates are possible but they too may not be sufficiently reliable. Furthermore, cross-sectional fertility measures can be confounded by changes in the timing of births across women's lifetimes (tempo) as well as by changes in the numbers of children that they have by the time they end their childbearing (quantum). When the age-based TFR is used, tempo and quantum can be assessed a long time after the fact by comparing the TFR for real birth cohorts with the cross-sectional or synthetic TFR. The problems involved in assessing tempo and quantum using the age-based TFR can be overcome by using parity progression ratios. The findings suggest that tempo effects evident particularly in the 1990s are no longer evident.

The own-children method is a reverse-survival technique to estimate fertility measures using census or survey data. Although the method has been developed in the 1960s, it is still a useful method for analysing fertility measures as it provides single-year estimates of fertility for 15 years prior to a census. This paper presents the fertility trends in Iran during 1997 and 2011 derived from the 2010 IrMIDHS and the 2011 Census, and examines the validity of the own-children method of fertility estimates. The results are assessed by a detailed investigation of mortality assumptions, the presence of non-own children, and age misreporting. ASFRS and TFRs are estimated for Iran by area of residence, province, and district. The fertility estimates obtained alternatively from two matching procedures (using relationship to head of household and mothers’ line number) are investigated to see the accuracy of the results. The OCM estimates are also compared with those obtained from other direct and indirect methods. The results show consistency between the own-children estimates obtain from the two data sources as well as from the two matching procedure. The TFR for 2011 is estimated to be around 1.75 indicating a rather slow decline in recent years. Our district level fertility estimates shed light on the future of fertility in Iran.

Atwiine Johnson. (Undergraduate Student):
Bachelor of Science in Population Studies, Makerere University
Email. johphia@yahoo.com
Uganda falls within the sub-Saharan Africa region and characteristically as her counterparts still among the poorest Countries in the world. Apart from being among the poorest Counties Uganda has one of the fastest and highest growing Population in the world. In fact Previous and most recent indicators show that fertility has been high and constant for several decades. What is equally important and unique to Uganda is the very fact that the biggest proportion of the country’s population is dominated by children constituting about 52% of the total population which depicts a momentum for further population growth. This study examines the underlying factors responsible for this high fertility and their interrelationships as well as the demographic implications of such trends. The study involves analysis of the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS, 2011) and with some specific references to previous UDHS data sets especially those of 2006, 2000 and 1995 to depict Uganda’s Fertility trends very well. Preliminary findings show that Uganda’s Total fertility rate (TFR) stands at 6.2 children per woman; General Fertility Rate (GFR) is 217 children per 1000 women and a high Crude Birth Rate

In West Bengal, India; urban rapid fertility decline started in the late 1980s in urban areas and hence fertility reached at the replacement level in 1989, whereas rural areas achieved that level in 2007, after two decades. In the rest of the state fertility decline began in the 1970s. The principal aim of this paper is to explore the causes of rural-urban gap in fertility levels, and more importantly the tempo and quantum effect on fertility transition by using DHS data and also primary level data. Quantitative methods were applied to assess the tempo and qualitative (FGDs) were adopted to understand the difference. Although fertility has declined substantially in the past two decades in West Bengal, still rural-urban gap in fertility persists within the state. This gap has narrowed down recently but urban fertility has come to a stall for some time at a very low level and rural fertility recently reached replacement level. The structural change in socio-economic conditions in the past two decades perhaps helped to bridge the gap and motivate rural women to adopt small family. The diffusion of ideas of small family and change in aspirations about children from urban to rural area contributed to rapid decline in rural fertility rate.

Fertility decline below replacement level is a widely extended phenomenon in many countries. In Uruguay, the situation is rather peculiar: it is a middle income Latin American country whose population dynamics is similar to that of Western European countries (below replacement fertility and advanced population aging). The purpose of this paper is to study the profile of the fertility decline in Uruguay by using estimates which have not been used in the past. Mainly, by decomposing tempo and quantum effects in period fertility indicators, including analysis by birth order. The aim is to understand to which extent the decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) can be attributed to the fertility level and to which extent to the fertility calendar. Our results show a sustained decline of the fertility quantum as estimated by the conventional TFR, due to a tempo effect during the economic crisis years (2000-2003) that continued its trend even when this tempo effect had finished, situating Uruguayan fertility below replacement. We discuss the relevance of the public use of the TFR along with adjusted measures, in order to provide more accurate evidence for policy making in LAC countries.

The postponement or advancement of births increases or decreases mean age at childbearing which in turn, distorts period TFR. This is true for any population undergoing fertility transition. However, despite the ubiquity of strong evidences of postponement of births across countries, research so far on tempo effects is disproportionately focused on developed nations with almost neglected focus in the developing countries. In attempt to fulfill this research gap, this study examines role of the tempo effects in period fertility trends in India. Using merged birth histories of three rounds of NFHS (19992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06), in this paper, we estimated fertility trends and the mean ages at child bearing by birth orders for the past 25 years (1981-2006) in India. Results indicate that cumulated fertility before age 40 in India declined from around 4.5 to 2.7 during 1981-2006 with urban fertility levels being lower than rural areas. Fertility trends by birth order show that fertility declined for all births orders with relatively higher decline for higher order births. The mean age at first birth increased by almost 0.82 years with urban areas showing an increase of 1.1 years during 1981-2006. Results reveal considerable tempo distortions in the period TFRs in India which are more pronounced since 1990s.

Abstract
This study contributes to research regarding the recent main changes in the number of women´s children ever born related to economic- social and demographic factors. This sample consists of 406 participants: 15-49 year- old women who are married, living with their husband and living in Shiraz city, the method of gathering of data is self- reporting questionnaire. These findings suggest the increase in age of marriage, social class, education levels, decrease attitude toward childbearing. Also some factors like women´s age, the duration of marriage increase the number of children ever born. Occupation, the place birth, avoiding of single child, the girl preference and tendency to gender combination of children affect on women´s childbearing. Moreover, women tend to have more children in order to keep the solidarity, closeness of their family up. Finally the stepwise regression shows that among the whole of regarded variables, the duration of marriage, women´s education, girl preference and the place birth totally are able to explain 60 percent of the women´s child bearing.