Migration effects of fertility: the case of Russian migrants in Estonia

This study analyses the risks and timing of first and second births among four groups: native Estonians, first and second generation immigrant Russians in Estonia, and the immigrants’ origin country population – Russians in Russia. Estonia provides an interesting case where immigration processes occurred earlier than in other Western European countries, and one third of the population consists of foreign-origin population. The aim of the study is to test migration effects on fertility through testing different hypotheses, including selectivity. The Generations and Gender Survey provides internationally comparable data with life history approach from two countries – Estonia and Russia. Piece-wise constant exponential models are used to analyse birth parameters of male and female respondents born between 1924 and 1983, living in urban areas. Sex, birth cohort, educational attainment, type of region of origin, age at migration, partner’s country of birth and age at first birth are included as control variables. Findings do not indicate first generation migrants’ fertility convergence towards native Estonians for both first and second birth. Second generation migrants have socialised to the host society when the first birth is concerned, but the socialisation hypothesis is not confirmed in case of second birth.