Any prospects of fertility recovery in low-fertility societies?

We used District Level Household Survey round 3 conducted in India in 2007-08 to test the following hypotheses: 1) Child mortality is positively associated with fertility; 2) primary infertility is negatively associated with fertility; and 3) son preference is positively associated with fertility. For analysis purpose, we divided India into 85 natural regions based on the agro-climatic scheme proposed by the census of India. We estimated all the independent variables and the dependent variable for each of the 85 natural regions of India. Bivariate LISA, Moran’s I, ordinary least squares (OLS), and instrumental variable (IV) regression were used to test the hypotheses. Improved water and improved sanitation were used as instruments in the IV regression. Primary infertility, use of family planning methods, and female literacy were negatively associated with TFR in the OLS (child mortality was not included in OLS). Instrumental variable regression (also included child mortality) confirmed the findings of the OLS. But, the statistical significance of female literacy reduced slightly in the IV regression. Child mortality and son preference were not statistically associated with TFR in the IV regression.

The idea of fertility recuperation emerged when demographers found that higher average age at first child (AFC) was not predicting lower completed fertility anymore. A common demographic portrayal of fertility recuperation is the comparison of age-specific fertility rates between two consecutive cohorts, which typically shows a “catching-up” dynamic. But that portrayal is mostly qualitative and does not define clear measures of postponing and recuperating. It does not tell, for example, whether recuperation is due to an increase of fertility among late AFC women, or is due to women of any AFC increasing their fertility. In both cases the “catching up” dynamics will be the same. This article A) elaborates on a quantitative portrait of fertility recuperation, based on AFC-conditional fertility rates, and B) performs an empirical application using European survey data, where it is found that cohorts where recuperation is first found are characterized by higher fertility of late AFC women; these women, in fact, entirely explain the appearance of the recuperation.

Premarital cohabitation and childbearing in cohabitation have increasingly gained ground across Europe. The aim of this paper is to investigate how contextual factors, e.g. societal values and economic conditions, relate to variation in childbearing in cohabitation, controlling for individual-level characteristics. Analyses are based on harmonized survey data from more than 44 thousands individuals nested in 126 sub-national regions nested in 15 countries. We propose a 3-level hierarchical model predicting the probability to get the first child in cohabitation vs. marriage. Our results show that contextual-level variation is highly relevant for understanding variation in childbearing in cohabitation. They suggest that across countries perceptions on the economic autonomy of women are highly positively associated with childbearing in cohabitation. This lends support to the Second Demographic Transition Framework. On the other hand, we find within countries a positive association between unemployment rates and childbearing in cohabitation, which indicates a pattern of disadvantage.

Existing studies of fertility concentration have focused on nonparametric measures such as `have half', `half have', and the well-known Gini index. Here, we review the literature and discuss the nature of fertility variation, as well as the behavioural patterns leading to over- and underdispersion respectively and their theoretical implications. We demonstrate that commonly used concentration measures are less informative than is generally believed, and cannot be used to study changes in fertility variation in the presence of changes in the level of fertility, or to draw inferences about behavioural heterogeneity or change. Instead, we focus on the statistical measure of dispersion (i.e. the variance-to-mean ratio), and present a collection of empirical results on patterns of over- and underdispersion in relation to the overall level of fertility, and discuss their significance. The finding that, especially when fertility is low, instances of under-dispersion are common, which are difficult to model with the statistical toolkit customary in demographic analysis, motivates an introduction to alternative count models recently revived in the statistical literature and an examination of their ability to fit both over- and under-dispersed distributions of complete parity.

Little is known about women in sub-Saharan Africa who desire to limit their future childbearing. Demographic and Health Survey data from 18 countries are analyzed here to better understand the characteristics of women wishing to limit childbearing. Demand for limiting (26 percent of married women) nearly equals that for spacing (31 percent). The mean “demand crossover age” (the average age at which demand to limit births begins to exceed demand to space) is generally around age 33, but in some countries it is as low as 23 or 24. Large numbers of women have exceeded their desired fertility but do not use family planning, citing fear of side effects and health concerns as barriers. Many African women are not only interested in birth spacing; in fact, demand for limiting nearly equals that for spacing. Birth limiting has a greater impact on fertility rates than birth spacing and is a major factor driving the fertility transition. Meeting the growing needs of African women with an intention to limit is essential as they are a unique audience that has long been overlooked and underserved.

Migrant fertility has become an increasingly prominent explanation for recent fertility change. Immigrant Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) are consistently higher than native TFRs in the majority of European countries. However, research has cast doubt on the use of tempo-distorted measures of fertility for evaluating the contribution of immigrants to aggregate fertility. Furthermore, previous research has almost exclusively analysed incomplete fertility profiles, an approach which provides little insight into the absolute impact of immigrant fertility.

Considering the UK, this research uses survey estimation and count regression techniques to disentangle tempo variation from the quantum of immigrant fertility. This approach is crucial for testing migrant fertility hypotheses because migration is known to influence the timing of childbearing. The results support several hypotheses, with evidence of disruption followed by elevated fertility, particularly for recent cohorts of women arriving after age 25. This may be explained by selection, anticipation, or adaptation. However, the results show no evidence of disruption for immigrants from Jamaica or Bangladesh, suggesting cultural maintenance or socialisation for these groups. The paper concludes with an appraisal of the method used here, and its benefits for future research.

Sweden, in relation to its population, is one of the world's largest recipients for international adoption, and in Sweden, adoption has become one of several ways to start a family. This study investigates welfare components of the first large group of intercountry adopted persons born in the 1970s and raised in Sweden. Previous research has shown that adopted persons suffer mental health problems to a greater extent than others. Research on adopted persons situation in adulthood has been mainly confined to young adults in their 20s. We will study the welfare of international adopted persons in the ages 32 to 41. This will be done through a descriptive register based study where the population consists of all people born in the 1970s who were adopted from abroad by two Swedish-born parents sometime during their first five years of life. Individuals born in Sweden during the same period with two Swedish-born parents will comprise the comparison group. Our research questions focus on how intercountry adopted persons may differ from the comparison group in terms of family, education and income and our first results indicate that differences do exist.

In Sweden, as in many other countries, the patterns of partnership formation and dissolution has changed substantially with a general trend towards less stable unions. This study aims to give insight about the development of childbearing caused by union instability. Stepfamily fertility is studied for the period 1970–2011. It is measured by studying how many children who at birth have half-siblings, and by studying how many women and men have children with more than one partner. The analysis is based on register data containing information on childbearing histories of all women and men in Sweden. The results show that the impact of stepfamily fertility has declined in the 2000s. In a logistic regression model the reasons for this decline is explored. The results of the regression models show that factors such as postponement of family formation, higher educational levels and increasing numbers of foreign born only partly can explain the downturn. Thus, there are also other explanations. One could be increasing gender equality.

Today there are many working parents in the labour market, especially, the increase in the labour participation of mothers is one of the most prominent changes of the recent labour market in Korea. While, at the same time, the family's living circumstances and the requirements imposed by work make working parents' child-rearing more and more difficult. The conflict between work and family life may lead either to a clear dominance of work over the family life or to a reshaping of the present everyay lives of families through changes in existing family policies.
The situation apperars to be more difficult in Korea, where, despite childcare services have expended rapidly, the working parents still have difficulties to find appropiate childcare methods because of their long workng hours. As s result the balancing work and family life through the reduction of working time is the very requisitie of working parents in Korea.
Based on these backgrouds, the aim of my paper is to look at what is happening to the family life under the Long Working Hours Culture in Korea with the issue of childcare. For example, the time pressure of working parents, and their perception of the imbalance of work and family life, and their childcare problems.

The population of Fiji consists of two major ethnic groups, Fijians and Indians. It also comprises other group, such as Europeans, Chinese and other Pacific Islanders. The 2007 census showed that there were 56.8 percent Fijians and 37.5 percent Indians, with the remaining 5.7 percent consisting of other groups.
Fiji has recently witnessed a spectacular decline in fertility but with a marked variation between Fijians and Indians. The total fertility rate among Indians dropped to 2.8 in 1986 and 2.5 in 1996. It continued to decline further, approaching below the replacement fertility of 1.9 in 2007. By contrast, Fijian fertility reached 3.9 in 1996. As with Indians, Fijian fertility also fell sharply to 3.2 in 2007.
The main objective of this paper is to examine ethnic variation in fertility using current fertility estimated directly from the census data. As the Fiji census continued to gather information on the relationship of mothers with their own children, this information has been used to estimate fertility trends over the past 15 years preceding the census by the application of the own-children method.
This paper will first examine fertility trends and differentials by ethnicity, Fijians and Indians. It will undertake decomposition analysis technique to determine the components of changes in the TFR.