Any prospects of fertility recovery in low-fertility societies?

Korea's economic growth is the most significant event in the history of economic development in the twentieth century. The total fertility rate of Korea sharply declined during the same period, from 6.0 in 1960 to 1.2 in 2010. This low fertility rate poses concerns for Korea which experiences fastest growing aging population in OECD. The objective of this study is to examine the determinants of the fertility rate in Korea based on the household production function approach. It is postulated that as income increases, there is a greater demand for children. At the same time, since child rearing uses mother's time intensively, the relative cost of having children rises, and the utility maximizing couple shifts away from the relatively more costly to less costly sources of utility and demand for children decreases. This study suggests the negative substitution effect has outweighed the positive income effect on fertility rate in Korea. We employ a multiple regression model to determine the explanatory variables on total fertility rate. Cross-section and time series data are used to conduct a panel data analysis. The implication of this framework is that the economic approach illuminates the opposite effects of Korea's economic progress on the fertility behavior.

Informed by the Theory of Planned Behavior, this study examines the hypothesis that individuals’ background factors are external variables influencing fertility intentions largely through attitudes to positive or negative outcome of having a (another) child, perceived norms, measuring external social pressures for having a/another child, and perceived behavioral control, measuring whether a person is able to have a (another) child. This study uses data from the 2012 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions, conducted by the author among a representative sample of 2,267 married women aged less than 36 and men living with such women in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Multivariate results show that individuals who viewed having a (another) child more detrimental for their personal life, those who felt less social pressures from their peers for having a (another) child, and those who perceived a greater control over resources, required for childbearing, were more likely to intend to have no (more) children or to be unsure rather than to have a/another child. Attitudes and norms had a greater effect on the intention to have a first child, whereas the intention to a second child was largely influenced by attitudes and perceived behavioral control. The implications of the results for polices, aiming to raise fertility, are discussed.

The Sultanate of Oman, a Middle Eastern Arab country, is a pro-natalist country with high fertility, where official population policy is not in place. Nevertheless, the fertility rate has declined dramatically from a very high rate of 8.6 births per women in 1988 to 4.8 births per woman in 2000, a decline of nearly four births per woman with in a short period of twelve years. This paper provides critical review of the fertility transition in Oman and identify the direct and indirect determinants of declining fertility in the 1990s. The study is based on recent national level population base surveys data in Oman. The results indicate that a decrease in the age-specific proportions of women who are married, followed by an increase in contraceptive use are the most important mechanisms by which fertility has declined in Oman. Post-partum infecundability also play important role in fertility control in Oman. Women education and employment are likely factors that encourage couples to delay marriage and use modern family planning methods and thus reduce marital fertility. The decline in fertility in Oman is strongly related to socio-economic development. The findings of the study have important policy implications for national level population planning.

The percentage of children born as twins has increased since the middle of the 20th Century. During the year 2012, 2.7 percent of the children in Sweden were born as twins or triplets, whereas in 1950 that same proportion was 1.9 percent. This study compares twins and non-twins in Sweden using administrative register data. The database contains 8.8 million individuals born between 1932 and 2012 of which 187 000 were born as twins, triplets or quadruplets. During the 20th century, the fertility rate in Sweden was characterized by big fluctuations and this study shows that both twins and non-twins followed the same trends during that time. However, women twins have had a lower fertility rate than non-twins for all years between 1980 and 2012. In addition, a higher proportion of twins compared to non-twins were also childless by the age of 45. Curiously, discrepancies are not found only when comparing twins and non-twins. When a comparison is made between twin sisters and brother and sister twins, the study shows that the women with a twin sister had a lower fertility rate than those with a twin brother. Could different demographic and socioeconomic variables help explain the differences?

The aim of this paper is to study the prevalence and risk factors of pregnancy loss due to miscarriage and stillbirth among mothers aged 15 to 49 years in Malaysia. The data used was obtained from the Fourth Malaysian Population and Family Survey (MPFS-4), which was carried out in 2004. This paper analysed 13,312 pregnancies among 3,534 mothers that ended in live birth or stillbirth and miscarriage which has been grouped together as non-live birth. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to compare risks of non-live births relative to the live births. The results showed that mothers’ birth cohort, age at first marriage, pregnancy order, and previous non-live births have significant effects on the incidence of non-live births among them. It was found that the likelihood of non-live births increased with age at first marriage, pregnancy order, and previous non-live births. In addition, those born in 1970 or later have more risk of non-live births as compared to those were born before. Little has been known about the causes of pregnancy loss due to miscarriage and stillbirth in Malaysia. It is time to start understand the true nature of this condition. Through the provision of cause-oriented treatment by the medical doctors, it is hoped that many couples will be able to achieve intended live births.

The study tries to explore how age at first marriage and actual number of children are influenced by socio-economic factors and contraceptive use and discussion with family planning workers. The study included 134 married male and female respondents and used multiple regression analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis for justifying hypotheses. Findings of the study show that female got married and give birth of their first child at their early age (below 18 years). And people who had very low years of schooling have high preference to have more children and they get married at their very early age. However actual high actual number of children and low age at first marriage is found for Muslim people compared with Hindu people. And people who ever used contraception and did not use contraception at current and did not discuss with the health workers were married below 18 years, very low level of education and more than four actual numbers of children. That indicates that people’s fertility behavior in vulnerable area for climate change will have significant influences on delaying population stabilization and adding more populations at national level.

The experience of it in different states of India are diverge we have identified 14 states that has indication of fertility stalling. The specific objective are
Reconstructions of fertility trends adjusting omission and displacements using birth history of 14 Indian states
Identify true and spurious stalls in different states by fitting autoregressive-dummy variable regression
Propose a suitable model for forecasting TFR using using Box-Jenkins methodology.
We have pooled three rounds of DHS birth history files and converted it to “person period” files to apply Poisson regression model to arrive at the long terms fertility trend adjusted for displacement and omission (Schoumker, 2008).
Ln(mi)=ln(t) +f(age) + g(time)+ O(i)+DB(i)+DA(i); where i=1, 2, 3 three rounds of DHS.
We have applied dummy variable regression with autoregressive component to identify stall period
〖TFR〗_t=α_0+α_1 〖TFR〗_(t-2) +α_(2 ) D_( t )+α_3 〖(D〗_( t ) 〖TFR〗_(t-2) )+∪_t
Finally, the ARIMA (p, q, r) model is used for projecting the future level of fertility. The model suggests that the current as well as forecasted value of TFR is substantially higher than the projected TFR by the Technical Group.
The policy implication that may lead to lack of adequate focus on family planning program is also assed in the paper.

The objective of this study is to analyze the factors that determine the birth of a first child after migrating, focusing particularly on the effects of the family situation at the time of arrival. Our hypothesis is that reproductive behavior following immigration is closely linked to whether a woman was already living as a couple and/or already had children before immigrating. The data for our analysis comes from the 2007 National Immigration Survey.
Results show, first of all, that the most important factor regarding the birth of a child after migration is the presence of children born before migrating. Secondly, marital status has an important effect on the likelihood of having this first child. Finally, the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of women when they arrive affect the likelihood of having their first child, according to each family situation.
Our principal finding is to show the great diversity of reproductive behavior in the immigrant population. The main implication is the foreseeable change in the contribution of the immigrant population to the fertility rate and the number of births as the new population settles in and the profile of immigrant women changes. This will result in a change in the contribution of the immigrant population regarding the deceleration of the aging process.

Evidence suggests that kin presence may be correlated with fertility, but variation in how kin ‘presence’ is measured makes firm conclusions hard to draw. Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey, we investigate how the measure of kin availability influences the effect of kin on fertility using three measures of kin ‘presence’: survivorship, co-residence, and proximity of a woman’s parents and parents-in-law. We find that co-residence with parents-in-law results in higher fertility, while living with parents does not, but that living in close proximity to parents increases fertility, while living near in-laws does not. The results may suggest that maternal and paternal kin influence fertility through different mechanisms. Paternal kin may increase the fertility of daughters-in-law by reducing their autonomy in the household, while maternal kin may help daughters who live nearby, allowing them to attain higher fertility than would be possible without help.

Qatar has experienced spectacular economic growth over the past decade. Between 2004 and 2010, real GDP grew by an annual average of around 16.2%, and over this period Qatar’s economy grew faster than any other. Measured in purchasing power parity terms, its per capita GDP is now among the highest in the world. With huge and increased revenues from its exports of gas and oil, Qatar has invested heavily in economic and social infrastructure, as well as, in the well-being of its people. There have been remarkable increases in all socio-economic indicators and resultant gains in human development. Accompanying the various modernization changes, family formation and childbearing behaviour are also in transition.

Against this background, this paper examines changes in period and cohort trends in Qatari nuptiality and fertility. Utilizing time-trends in civil registration data and population census data, the paper will review the pattern of changes in Qatari marriage and fertility behaviour. It applies demographic techniques to explain the factors associated with the changes. The paper will conclude with an assessment of the implications of demographic changes for population and social policy.