Population ageing and intergenerational transfers: challenges for social welfare policies

This paper presents estimates of the system of intergenerational transfers in Nigeria in 2004 and 2009. This necessitated identifying the surplus age range in the economic lifecycle and whether there were changes over the two periods. Based on the lifecycle deficit (LCD), options for intergenerational transfer to finance the deficit were examined within the context of social protection in Nigeria. The methodological framework utilised in this paper was motivated by the National Transfer Accounts methodology. The process of estimating the age profile of consumption and income formed the basis for the economic lifecycle deficit(LCD) equation in the model. Our estimates used the 2004 and 2009 National Income and Product Account data of Nigeria. Data were obtained from 2004 National Living Standard Survey and the 2009 Harmonised Living Standard in Nigeria. The paper revealed the structure of intergenerational transfers in 2004 and 2009 band how these were used in financing lifecycle deficit. In general, LCDs are financed through age reallocations. The implications of government and familial transfers in financing deficits of the children and the elderly were examined within the context of social protection policies and programs in Nigeria.

In the Czech Republic population ageing is becoming a serious problem at the labor market, financial stability, pension system, health and social care. Before principal changes in the pension system are prepared and confirmed, some parametrical changes have been introduced since 1994 till 2011. One of the fundamental changes is prolongation of retirement age (without any stopping rule) and different prolongation for males and females. It has significant consequences to dependency ratios and other indicators. Unlike the calculation with fixed limits, where the total dependency ratio gradually grows, the scenario referred to as ‘REAL’ does not seem as negative as it is often described. In this case, the TDR ranges between 1.67 and 1.84 in the basic version. This calculation should support wide discussions regarding the pension system and its reform. In 2060, a person of economically active age should support himself/herself and another 0.84 individuals of economically inactive age.

CO-AUTHORS: Tomas Fiala, Jitka Langhamrova, Jindrich Klufa

Elderly population is growing in the developing countries. Governments and societies are not prepared to cope with their aging populations and the oPt is no exception. The objective of this paper is to shed the light on the living conditions and social support of the elderly in the oPt and suggest policy recommendations. This paper is based on the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) 2010. The analysis was focused on 60 years and above people. 4.4% of the total population in the oPt were elderly (5% females and 3.8% males). 64% were married (91% men,44% women). 47% of the elderly were illiterate (65% men, 25% women). 87% were either living alone offering home to family members (9% and 78% respectively).42% was heads of households. 85% of the elderly think their children are taking full care of them. 15% reported having uncomfortable residence and 14% were annoyed from persons or things in their home. 8% reported having elderly clubs while only 0.7% was using them. 59% asked to have social associations while only 4% agreed on going to elderly homes. Many reported bad feelings and perceptions (50% depression, 46% worse social status, 51% nervousness, 37% loneliness. Apparently, elderly needs much support from both their families and other institutions. They should be targeted in the development agenda.

Title: Demographic Characteristics of the Elderly in Cambodia and Policy Implications
Authors: Hang Lina, National Institute of Statistics, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Meng Kimhor, National Institute of Statistics, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Nott Rama Rao*, International Census and Survey Consultant , Chennai,
India ( formerly with UNFPA)
Abstract: Population ageing is no longer a demographic problem confined to the advanced countries. With declining fertility and mortality many among the developing nations find themselves in the third stage of demographic transition. Cambodia is one among them. The proportion of elderly population (aged 60 and more) has increased from about 5 per cent to 6.3 per cent during 1998-2008 and it is projected to touch the 11 per cent mark in 2030.
Utilizing the Census and Survey data, the paper analyses the changing population age structure which will prove useful in monitoring and implementation of the National Strategic Development Plan which is underway. Cambodia is among the poorest countries of the world and any increase in the elderly population who are mainly dependent on the working age population gives rise to several social and economic problems.

Assess relationship between care-giving and -receiving with functional disability and emotional well-being of older people aged 50+ in rural South Africa. Data were from cross-sectional survey adapted from WHO’s SAGE. Bivariate and multivariable logistics were used to assess relationship between care-giving and/or care-receiving with functional ability, emotional well-being and self-rated health status adjusted for socio-demographic factors. 422 participants were enrolled; median age 60. 63% were care-givers. In multivariable logistic regressions, care-givers to both adults and children were more likely to be in good functional ability (aOR 5.74, 95% CI 3.13-10.55). This relationship was stronger for care-giving to adults (aOR 4.95, 95% CI 3.02-8.11) than children (aOR 2.35, 95% CI 1.43-3.85). In contrast, care-givers were less likely in good emotional well-being (aOR 0.36, 95% CI 0.21-0.62); again relationship stronger for care-givers to adults (aOR 0.38, 95% CI 0.24-0.60) than children (aOR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39-0.95). Participants giving and receiving care concurrently were twice as likely to be in good functional ability, but 47% less likely to be in good emotional well-being. Findings suggest care-giving is associated with poor emotional well-being. Social support may help mitigate emotional stress of care-giving.

This paper focuses on European migrants in Belgium. Although European migrants represent a growing share of the new immigrants in Belgium and have been at the hearth of EU mobility policies for many years now, this group has been studied scarcely. Very little is known on European families and the impact of European mobility and transnationality on these families. The current paper aims to provide a first insight into the family relations of Europeans in Belgium. More specifically, it focuses on the intergenerational contact between migrants and their mothers. The central question is to what extent intergenerational contact differs in European transnational families compared to Belgian families as well as to non-European transnational families. Complementary to earlier work this study uses a quantitative approach, using the Belgian Generations and Gender Survey data of wave 1. The data on contact with the mother, both face-to-face as well as by telephone, are used in multivariate ordinal regression models.

The main objective of the research is to depict the specifics of intergenerational transfers in Russia, to estimate the role of intra-family support on the life of the elderly people, the intensity of contacts between relatives and thus to show the moderating effects of intergenerational exchanges on social inequalities.
State support encompasses elderly population mainly by means of payments from the Pension Fund. The risk of increase in inequality between generations is probable as number of tax payers decreases affecting cost-benefit ratio governmental provisions, private intra-family support among generations has informal character and poses the question of its universal and obligatory nature. Assistance within the family has various forms and contributes to generational equity and solidarity.
We use various sources of data, which contain generous and specific information about main characteristics of different generations and intergenerational transfers. Among them data from Rosstat, RLMS. The assessment of priorities in the reforming of the social security system is based on the 2000-s years studies including the survey of intergenerational relations of elderly in their families, conducted by the author in rural areas of Russia.

Bangladesh is passing through the later stages of demographic transition with its inevitable challenges of a huge numbers of elderly people. Using a WHO study on AGEing and adult health the study attempts to analyze the elderly situation. Data were collected from 4,000 elderly people on self-rated health, health state. The study is examining whether the living arrangements and family structure of the elderly have any effect on self-rated health, health state, of the elderly people.
Multivariate analyses show a consistent inverse relationship between self rated health and health status and age. Self rated health and health status decreases with increasing age. Elderly Females have significantly worse health (self rated) than male and higher educated and rich enjoy better health (self rated). In terms of household structure data show that elderly living in nuclear family enjoys better health but elderly living in stem and stem joint household. Finally, while age worsens health, higher education and wealth provide better health to the elderly. Living in nuclear family provides better health than living in either eroded or joint and extended family. In term of household structure and health status result is different for different health state.

The South African State Old Age Pension (SOAP) forms the backbone of social assistance in South Africa. The impact of this pension on its recipients has consequently come under much scrutiny. Previous research on the pension has been primarily concerned with estimating the behavioral effects of the pension on the members of pension households. However, because these studies have used cross-sectional data, the findings have been predicated upon the assumption that the composition of pension households does not change on pension receipt. This paper questions the plausibility of this assumption by examining the effect of the SOAP on the living arrangements of recipients. The results support the argument that the living arrangements of pensioners will be affected by pension receipt, and that the results from past studies of the pension may consequently have been misinterpreted. The study employs two different methods to achieve its aim, namely a regression discontinuity approach using 2001 census data and a cohort approach using a series of cross-sectional data from 1994-2010.

In developing countries, individual livelihoods are threatened on a daily basis by exposure to shocks such as inflation, severe weather conditions and unstable markets while options for mitigation are limited. Individuals give resources typically financial to friends and family as a way to self-insure. This paper tests the reciprocity motive for transfer by examining how an individual’s survival expectation influences the amount they give in monetary transfer. To meet this goal, I apply an ordered logit model that utilizes data on respondents’ subjective estimates of the probability of death within a year to determine the likelihood of the size of monetary transfer they give to other family members. The theory of a ‘moral economy’ proposes that in infinitely repeated games an individual who does not expect that they will be around to gain at some point in the exchange interaction will not participate. As such, the expectation is that individuals who expect to die within a year will not transfer money to others. The findings from this study will have implications for the development of public safety nets programs, especially for areas with a high HIV prevalence rate as found in Malawi.