Poster session on Population and policy challenges in East Asia

An unprecedented number of baby-boomers will enter retirement in the coming decades without adequate resources. The present study is to investigate the factors determining Subjective Wellbeing of baby-boomers. A national survey with a random sample which selected those born between 1955 and 1963 and maintained employment status. Herarchical regression analysis was used to examine the the suggested hypothetical model with mental health status, social relations, and the preparedness for retirement were significant predictors of subjective wellbeing of the baby-boomers in Korea. However, unlike the researcher's anticipation, health status, marital satisfaction and socio-demographics variables (gender, age, and education) showed a weak association (p>.05). The findings have important implications for how emotional stability and social activities should be maintained or developed for individuals who are reaching the retirement and ageing. A recommendation for a further study and policy implications were discussed.

Traditionally the progress in the demographic transition is studied by the indicators CBR and CDR. Attempts were made later on to represent the demographic transition by means of an index called the demographic transition index. Total fertility rate (TFR) and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) were used in constructing the above index. In the present paper an attempt has been made to develop new indices for studying the inter-linkages between the demographic transition and the ageing of the population by using the age specific fertility rates (ASFRs), natural log of Age specific death rates (ASDRs) and age distribution of population. The present indices have been developed using the statistical concept the index of qualitative variation (IQV) given in Chava and Anna (2011) "Social Statistics for Diverse Society." It is realised that this IQV helps in understanding the diversity taking place in the phenomena of fertility, mortality and overall population distribution over time. Data reported by the Sample Registration System (SRS) of India and its States over the years 1970s to 2010 has been used in understanding the inter-linkages among the above three phenomena. The indices seems to give acceptable results; and also easy to compute and understand.

Using data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging, this study sought to evaluate whether National Health Insurance (NHI) produces a longitudinal beneficial effect on life satisfaction of older Taiwanese adults. Results from growth curve models indicated a significant decline in life satisfaction after the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and no significant increase after 2003 SARAS; however, a significant increase in this after 12-year NHI establishment. In addition, the pre-NHI uninsured had a significantly lower level of life satisfaction before NHI establishment in comparison to the pre-NHI insured through Government Employee insurance (β=-1.38, p<0.05), even controlling for concurrent medical care utilization and health status. And, NHI significantly reduced gaps in life satisfaction between the pre-NHI uninsured and the pre-NHI insured over time. These findings suggest a long-term effect of the NHI policy on life satisfaction among older adults. The NHI efforts to promote life satisfaction among older adults should be recognized.

In this study, we examine effects of demographic change on trends in income inequality in Taiwan. Using data pooled from the Surveys of Family Income and Expenditure, we document trends in family income from 1981 to 2000 and decompose effects of the age, education, and marital status of household head, and household size in a quantile-regression counterfactual framework. Results show that age of household head is the major demographic factors contributing to rising income inequality. The effects of these demographic factors mainly come from changes in population composition, rather than changes in the structural return to these factors. In contrast to prior studies focusing on the demand-side of labor-market effects, our study demonstrates the importance of supply-side population composition.

This paper asks how transnational marriage impacts the demographic future of the Korean minority in northeast China. Abnormally high male birthrates in many Asian countries since the 1970s are predicted to cause disruptions in all areas of social life (Hesketh et al 2011). Yet South Korea was the first to address this nationally, partly due to its earlier uptake of sex-selection technology. In the early 1990s, faced with hundreds of thousands of aging bachelors and a plummeting birthrate, the state began funding men to seek brides overseas (Freeman 2011). The largest group of foreign brides came from China’s ethnic Korean minority, who live concentrated in the far northeastern Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. The Korean Chinese have a population of just 2.6 million, but since 1992 over 100,000 women have left for marriage in South Korea (Lee 2008). Fertility in Yanbian declined sharply in response, while sending-households receive considerable remittances. This creates a double-bind for migrant-sending communities: economic and social remittances boost the local economy, yet female depopulation threatens their demographic future. Combining economic and demographic data with ethnographic fieldwork in Yanbian and Seoul, I examine long-term social repercussions of marriage migration as a response to gender imbalance.

As other East Asian societies, Taiwan has confronted a remarkable decline in the number of births during the last decades. The more recent decline is largely attributed to a significant increase in the educational attainment of women, along with improved employment opportunities and higher wages for women in this region. It has been argued that both nuptiality and marital fertility have contributed to the recent fertility decline in Taiwan, and their relative importance actually varied over time. For younger cohorts, the changing preference for ideal partner/spouse has emerged as a priority concern in the decision-making process of union formation. In addition, the declining fertility rate is also due to perceived difficulty in raising children, particularly by working mothers. Using data from Taiwan’s Vital Statistics and Household Registration Records between 1976 and 2010, firstly, we will reconstruct completed fertility rates for female birth cohorts born before 1960 and model the CFRs for younger cohorts. Next, we will illustrate the extent to which changes in first marriage and childbearing behavior after marriage have contributed independently to the decline in fertility since 1970s. Based on these results, we will explain contemporary differences in cohort fertility and discuss the possibility of recuperation.

Increases in childlessness and a shift of childbearing to later age are common features of countries with low fertility. The rise of childless women and diversified fertility behaviors indicate that childbearing is concentrated onto population segments. If births are unequally distributed, particularly toward disadvantaged groups, social inequality may be intensified at least with respect to social reproduction. Despite widespread interest in low fertility, concentration of reproduction remains relatively unexplored. This study explores concentration of reproduction in South Korea, one of the lowest-low fertility countries. Based on cohort analysis of Korean Census samples data, I look at concentration ratios (CRs) in cohorts of women born in 1926-70. To be specific, I investigate the relationship between change in CRs and fertility transition and how it differs across women’s educational attainment in South Korea. The results of this study suggest that as completed fertility reaches below replacement level, the relationship between CR and fertility level changes from negative to negative around replacement level of completed cohort fertility. This study contributes to finding a general relation between CR and fertility level and expand its discussion to East Asia.

Traditionally the progress in the demographic transition is studied by the indicators CBR and CDR. Attempts were made later on to represent the demographic transition by means of an index called the demographic transition index. Total fertility rate (TFR) and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) were used in constructing the above index. In the present paper an attempt has been made to develop new indices for studying the inter-linkages between the demographic transition and the ageing of the population by using the age specific fertility rates (ASFRs), natural log of Age specific death rates (ASDRs) and age distribution of population. The present indices have been developed using the statistical concept the index of qualitative variation (IQV) given in Chava and Anna (2011) "Social Statistics for Diverse Society." It is realised that this IQV helps in understanding the diversity taking place in the phenomena of fertility, mortality and overall population distribution over time. Data reported by the Sample Registration System (SRS) of India and its States over the years 1970s to 2010 has been used in understanding the inter-linkages among the above three phenomena. The indices seems to GIVE acceptable results and easy to compute and understand.

Indonesia is facing demographic revolution, changed in age structure as well as rapid urbanization. The percentage of aging population rises to13.9 % in 2030. The Indonesia urbanization rise to level over than 70%. The data is from special assessment study of age friendly city in 14 cities of Indonesia which interviewed 2100 males and females of pre ageing and ageing population in 14 cities, and over than 250 multisectors informants. In addition to descriptive analysis of each indicator, a composite index of total and by each aspect are created using 95 WHO indicators of age friendly cities to make it easier convey the message to policy makers and stakeholders. The study provides a baseline assessment toward age friendly cities in 2030 and addition recommend on the step and alternative policy that could be adopted by policy makers and the other stakeholders. The study found that, the level of readiness of the all the 14 cities in Indonesia towards age friendly cities is only 43%. Among 8 aspects, two are leading: social participation and communication support & health services. On the other hand, the most weak aspect of the age friendly cities is civil participation & employment. Comparing all cities, small cities are more progressive in the fulfillment of the age friendly city indicators compared to the big cities.

Using data from a survey of four towns in Yi County of Anhui Province conducted in 2008, the paper analyzes older unmarried men’s expectations for their old age in rural China. It shows that marriage status is a significant determinant affecting expectations of support in old-age of rural men from perspectives of both birth cohort and migration experiences. Compared with married men, the older or never-migrated unmarried men are more likely to expect receiving the government aid and living in geracomium for old age, which is consistent with the hierarchical compensatory model that formal help becomes the last resort when the familial and non-familial sources of support are not available. Neither older unmarried men nor married men would see their siblings as their old-age supporters, and self-support by saving money or living alone become the important means in old-age expectations of the older unmarried men, especially for those who are relatively younger and ever-migrated.