Low fertility: theories and empirical evidence

This study investigates the fertility transition and convergence, and emerging patterns. Change-Point analyses indicate that the fertility in India observed multiple critical change-points. Considerable variation observed across the states in terms of initiation of transition and critical change points. Beta and Sigma convergence analyses indicate divergence in fertility rates across the states until 2000, divergence replaced with convergence for recent period. Convergence and low fertility clubs such as south Indian club, higher socioeconomic groups and non-slum urban areas are identified by introducing regional and socioeconomic group dummies into conditional Barro-Regression model. The factors associated with low and lowest-low fertility in India are identified by regression analyses. The higher education of women, greater mean age at first birth, breastfeed above 24 months, using any method of contraception, unmet need for limiting are emerged as a critical factors of low fertility while along with higher education, age at first birth above 30 years, couple desire to limit child bearing (after having only 1 living child), sex preference for both men and women become critical predictors of the women for lowest low fertility.

Increases in childlessness and a shift of childbearing to later age are common features of countries with low fertility. The rise of childless women and diversified fertility behaviors indicate that childbearing is concentrated onto population segments. If births are unequally distributed, particularly toward disadvantaged groups, social inequality may be intensified at least with respect to social reproduction. Despite widespread interest in low fertility, concentration of reproduction remains relatively unexplored. This study explores concentration of reproduction in South Korea, one of the lowest-low fertility countries. Based on cohort analysis of Korean Census samples data, I look at concentration ratios (CRs) in cohorts of women born in 1926-70. To be specific, I investigate the relationship between change in CRs and fertility transition and how it differs across women’s educational attainment in South Korea. The results of this study suggest that as completed fertility reaches below replacement level, the relationship between CR and fertility level changes from negative to negative around replacement level of completed cohort fertility. This study contributes to finding a general relation between CR and fertility level and expand its discussion to East Asia.

This study uses a multilevel logistic analysis to measure in what extent work and family conflict and gender relations at the municipality level are associated with the odds to have a child at the individual level in different parities, controlled by age and socio-economic characteristics. We analyze only married or cohabiting women (in an attempt to capture only intended fertility) from 15 to 49 years old. We observe that the work and family conflict variable affects negatively the first birth order, and positively the second and third in 2010 when Brazil had below replacement fertility. It has no effect in births of fourth order. In 2000 this variable was mostly not significant in any birth order. An interesting relation was found between the work and family variable and type of labor contract. The variable used to measure gender relations in the county level had no effect in 2000 and 2010.

This study is devoted to cohort fertility in Russia. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the changes in Russian cohort fertility and parity cohort fertility. Data: Russian Census 2002, Russian Census 2010.
Methodology: The method of cohort analysis and method of parity-progression table is used to study parity distribution (the probability-mass function) (Barkalov 2004). The Pollard’s decomposition of the Total Fertility difference also used (Pollard 1988). The total fertility, the mean number of siblings and the mean birth order (composite fertility quantum indicators), and mean age of first birth are calculated for 1940-1970 cohorts.

Calcutta in West Bengal currently has the lowest TFR (1.2) in India. Our paper explores the reasons for this.
We are particularly interested in the recency of the phenomenon. Could this this extremely low fertility be the continuation and accentuation of a trend that has more historical roots?
We use a variety of direct and indirect methods to ask if certain groups in urban West Bengal had low fertility well before the advent of either an aggressive population policy or the socioeconomic changes that possibly explain the currently low fertility of younger women. If so, who are these low fertility women from the past? Preliminary analysis suggests that they belong to the highest socioeconomic groups. Secondly, we draw some conclusions from the unusually high levels of traditional contraception use in the state. Thirdly, we speculate about the motivations for the early fertility decline in these socioeconomic groups. We focus especially on the special status of Calcutta as the seat of colonial power. This encouraged the spread of western style education and propagated a new ideology of marriage in which women of the upper classes were to be seen as wives and companions rather than as housewives and mothers.

In low income countries problems of basic health services go up. In affluent countries where basic service was generally accessible, question of access concern the degree of comprehensive that can be offered by health care system. Access to health care is a “basic human right and social goal so all individuals are consider to be entitled of economics benefits of the wider community does not necessary require that they should receive it”. Health infrastructures of Odisha are far from requirements and the outcomes of health are far from satisfactory. This is because of, both, inadequate health care facilities to the population as well as due to insufficient affordable capacity of majority of the people. There is a heavy burden of diseases in Odisha. Among all health indicators fertility and mortality rate are playing an important role in health sector. These ratios are consistently high in India compare to other countries. Not only in other country but also inside the country this is high in Odisha. Low Fertility rate but high mortality rate, why? What would be the reasons behind this? Main objective of this study is to analyse the trends between fertility and mortality in India as well as Odisha.

Based on the findings of previous empirical research, we can assume that differences between sectors and jobs in terms of security and flexibility of female employment might be important for fertility decisions. This relationship may arise because job characteristics influence the childbearing decision-making process directly or because women sort themselves into jobs based on their childbearing preferences. We aim to assess whether a relationship between job characteristics and fertility exists in Russia, a low fertility context, which can result from both directions of causality. We study the transition from childlessness to the first birth as well the transition to a second birth; the decline in second childbirths can account for a major part of the fertility decline in Russia, but postponement of childbearing can reduce the probability of subsequent births later as well. Our main research questions are the following: (1) To what extent do the intentions to and behavior of having a 1st and 2nd child correlate with women’s job characteristics? (2) Which job characteristics are more related to fertility intentions –flexibility, less working hours or job security after childbirth? Preliminary findings reveal that job characteristics and sectors are more related to the timing of the first birth than to having a second birth.

The aim of the study is to show the reduction in fertility from 1990 to 2010 in Mexico, by analyzing two important sources of information: Census of Population and Birth Certificates from administrative data.
First we will show through Birth Certificates how fertility has shown a reduction in the period, both in the Global fertility Rate and in Specific Fertility Rates too. We will present two sets of data, one calculated from the year of registration of birth using three years of information, and another from the age record, using up to thirty five months. We want to show by this, that both calculations produce similar information, and that using the age of registration gives opportunity, because we do not have to wait too much to have data.
On the other hand, we will present data from the 1990, 2000 and 2010 Population Census, and we calculate fertility by direct (using the question of last live birth) and indirect methods (the own children method). We can compare the information obtained directly and indirectly, demonstrating that is relevant in both ways, to estimate fertility through Population Census.
In both cases we use the information from specializing surveys in fertility to compare the results that we produce.

Since the longstanding notion that economic well-being was associated with lower fertility levels started to be called into question, there has been a renovated interest in understanding the relationship between economic hardship and fertility decisions. So far, most studies have approached the idea of uncertainty using snapshot indicators like type of contract or employment situation. However, these types of measures seem to be falling short in capturing what is intrinsically a dynamic process. In this paper I approach the concept of economic uncertainty developing an indicator of employment instability that considers the entire employment trajectory. Using sequence analysis I first classify trajectories based on their degree of instability, by considering the amount of change and the time spent in each employment/unemployment spell. The outcome is later used as an independent variable to estimate its effect on completed cohort fertility. Analyzes are performed for French men and women using the first two waves of the Generations and Gender Surveys. Although France is characterized by strong family policies, we expect employment instability to have a significant effect on fertility decisions, especially in the case of couples that struggle to reconcile family and career aspirations.

Coupled with the population ageing, the continued trends of low fertility (TFR below 1.2) is seen as one of main causes of social problems associated with economic downturn, unstable employment, labor shortage, and the expansion of welfare spending. Studies found that recently trends in childbearing in Korea are associated with changes in marriage pattern such as delay and avoidance of marriage among young Korean women. However, policies aimed at boosting child-bearing are somewhat fragmented. In this regard, it is urgent and inevitable that policy-makers understand the nature and causes of underlying social problems related to low fertility of Korea. This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. Unlike previous studies that were interested in forecasting TFR only, this study’s applied the Generalized log-gamma Distribution Model to predict fertility rate in association with the first marriage in that way, the fertility rate will be estimated with more logical and reasonable accuracy. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing.