Poster session on Fertility (1)

Few European countries such as France, Belgium or Denmark still report cohort fertility rates close to 2.0, while in the bordering German-speaking countries the CFR-levels are only at 1.6 children. These differences are usually explained by disparities in social norms and social policies, whose influence is difficult to isolate due to their mutual interdependence. Our study aims to disentangle them by analyzing a quasi-natural experiment. After WWI two German districts were ceded to Belgium. The population retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian policies. We use (micro)-census data to compare the fertility of the Belgian German minority with data for western Germany and the Flemish- and French-speaking population of Belgium. Our findings indicate that the fertility outcomes of the Belgian German minority resemble more the Belgian than the German pattern. This provides support for the view that institutional factors are relevant for understanding fertility differences between Belgium and Germany.

The objective of this paper is to understand the extent to which longer intervals between births of order two and three are indicators of failure to implement reproductive preferences in a context of declining fertility among less developed countries, mainly to Brazil, Bolivia and Colombia, where women with intermediate parity (three children) present, in the 2000s, a significantly higher birth intervals (BI) between orders two and three than between the first and second child, and the former is quite close to the BI of women who had only two children. This difference may help to understand issues such as efficient use of contraception, unwanted fertility and implementation of reproductive preferences in the region, since the ideal number of children oscillates around 2.0. The focus are women 35 years and older in these three countries in the 2000s, segmented by household area and schooling. For this purpose, we will make a descriptive analysis of the variables related to unwanted fertility using data from the DHS alike surveys. With the obtained results, we intended to show that women who suffer from unwanted fertility are not so much those with high parity and who live on the edge of society, but even those with low parity (three children) and are socially privileged.

Turkey has gone through major fertility decline since 1960s. The TFR declined from around 7 to replacement level today; faster than predicted by earlier projections. Population policies also changed during this process: Antinatalist policies replaced pronatalist ones, with growing emphasis on reproductive health. Today, as a candidate member to EU, Turkey is maybe a decade away from becoming the most populous country of Europe. However, Turkey’s current prime minister has been explicitly suggesting that couples have at least three children in the recent years. The argument is based on the idea that Turkey’s population is ageing, and will be similar to European populations today; and that this would put Turkey in the risk of economic stress in the upcoming decades. Thus we aimed to discuss whether a “three children policy” was the answer to Turkey’s ageing problem. We came up with different scenarios of fertility change and projected populations accordingly. Preliminary findings showed that although an increased TFR would help maintain a lower elderly dependency ratio, the actual population of elderly would still require extensive planning. Furthermore, child dependency ratios would be increase, putting more pressure on the working population. We lean towards alternative solutions to the ageing problem.

This study is devoted to cohort fertility in Russia. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the changes in Russian cohort fertility and parity cohort fertility. Data: Russian Census 2002, Russian Census 2010.
Methodology: The method of cohort analysis and method of parity-progression table is used to study parity distribution (the probability-mass function) (Barkalov 2004). The Pollard’s decomposition of the Total Fertility difference also used (Pollard 1988). The total fertility, the mean number of siblings and the mean birth order (composite fertility quantum indicators), and mean age of first birth are calculated for 1940-1970 cohorts.

An attempt is made to study the levels and differentials of permanent childlessness and also to examine the role of childlessness in explaining the fertility differentials in India. The analysis has been done using third round of National Family Health Survey. The contribution of childlessness in determining the prevailing fertility of the India is further analyzed by computing average number of children ever born separately for all women and only women with at least one child. Results shows that level of childlessness is higher in urban women. The uneducated women and women educated but below secondary level (3.0 percent) reported relatively lower level of childlessness compared to women having secondary and higher level of education (4.0 percent). The non-rich women reported relatively lower (2.7 percent) level of childlessness compared to rich (3.2) women. Further, it is found that Southern region have a higher difference in mean CEB between the women with at least one child and all women as a whole than the Northern region. From the estimated figures, it can be concluded that higher levels of childlessness in the Southern region is virtually influencing the prevailing fertility levels. Thus, there is North–South dichotomy in the prevailing fertility levels because of the differential level of childlessness rates.

While the existence of son preference in India is well-known in the literature, a key gap in our understanding of the determinants of son preference relates to potential differences that may exist between religious groups. This paper examines data from two waves of the National Family and Health Survey, 1998-99 and 2005-06 to determine if and to what extent does son preference differ between Hindus and Muslims, the two largest religious groups in India. The analysis of two indicators of son preference is proposed: latent son preference, measured by women’s self-reported preferred sex composition of children. A second indicator is proposed: revealed son preference, measured by parity progression ratios, conditional on sex of any previous children, indicating actual son-targeting fertility behaviors. Thus we will be able to compare and contrast differences between Hindus and Muslims related to both latent preferences and actual behaviors. The preliminary analysis of latent preferences shows that Muslim have lower son preference compared to Hindus. The effect of religion remains strongly significant after controlling for known socioeconomic determinants of son preference, suggesting that religious beliefs and practices especially among the majority Hindus may be a key cultural explanation for the persistence of son preference.

In the last recent years, the relationship between women's education and the total fertility rate has been analysed.
The third highest populated city of Turkey is Izmir and the relationship between education and TFR of its districts have been analyzed in this research. The need of a general country and international comparison is necessary as well as a regional and lower-region analysis.
The 2011 statistics of Izmir's thirty district has been taken from the TFR Public Health Department. The research included the age groups of women of 15-49 and with a total of 48.192 births.
The 2011 education statistics has been taken from the Turkey Statistics Department. The 15-49 age group has been divided into five groups: illiterate, literate but has not graduated from a school, primary, secondary and higher education.
The districts with high education levels have a lower TFR rate than the average district rate.
According to the average there is one city whose TFR is high and two districts whose education level and TFR are low; these should be analyzed with different factors.
Another factor that has stemmed from this research is that the previous generation's education level had an affect on TFR.

There has been concern about the progress of fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: in many parts of the continent family sizes continue to be large. However, examining fertility rates by rural and urban area reveals that the decline is well underway in some populations. This research will investigate whether there is a relationship between low fertility and birth interval length in urban areas of East Africa. Birth spacing practices which served to delay births were an important element of fertility dynamics in many traditional communities. Current research shows that birth spacing continues be an important feature of fertility, and in a number of countries intervals have lengthened to five years or more.
Regression models were used to analyse birth interval length by rural and urban area in four East African countries. Early analysis shows that, overall, intervals are longest and lengthening most rapidly in urban areas. Further analysis of these changes will give an understanding of the potential influence that lengthening birth intervals will have upon the fertility transition: the predominance of tempo changes may explain the slow nature of the decline. However, if intervals continue to increase it will be impossible for populations to return to high fertility levels.

Cohort trends in Belgian fertility show that higher educated women have consistently realised the more frequent progression to second and third births. Using a prospective study, based on longitudinal microdata from the 1991 and 2001 Belgian censuses, this paper investigates the mechanisms behind the positive gradient and explores (i) the correlation with household positions and activity status among Belgian women and their partners; and (ii) the variation in second and third birth hazards between Belgium’s main administrational units. Our results suggest that higher educated women have reduced the opportunity costs of parity progression after the first child by having access to stable employment, homogamy to highly educated partners and more frequent uptake of (in)formal child care. For lower educated women, parity progression more often entails a further weakening of their position on the labour market. Homogamy to less educated partners as well as higher unemployment risks of these partners further reduces second and third birth hazards. Finally, regional variation in second birth hazards is largely explained by regional differences in education, household positions and activity status. For third births, regional differences remain evident and women living in Brussels and Wallonia keep realising the highest birth hazards.

In Sub Saharan Africa, fertility levels in rural areas remains high. In Senegal, the number of child per women 15-49 years was 5.0 in 2010, but the gap between urban and rural context is growing (3.9 vs. 6.0). We use data from the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural Senegal, where a demographic follow-up is running from several decades (since 1963 for 8 villages and 1983 for 30 villages). Data allow to document trends in fertility and to understand the process of behavioral change in a population just engaged in the first stage of transition. Results show that fertility is declining specifically at young ages from the 1960s, age at marriage is rising, men become sexually active earlier and premarital births are more frequent in the younger generations. We will test common assumptions such as the impact of education, religion and economic factors on fertility behaviors. Preliminary results show that only age at marriage and urban experience (measured by a at least one-year stay in Dakar between age 15 to 19) are significant factors. Neither education nor religion can explain variations in fertility levels. Fertility level from women living in domestic-richest household is lower, while fertility level from women living in agricultural-richest household is higher.