Public policies and low fertility

The role of urbanization in fertility decline has been the object of much academic discussion. Earlier studies had almost unanimously agreed that since urban fertility rates were systematically lower than rural fertility rates, then there must be something about urban areas in general that induces lower fertility. Thus, urbanization was considered a key process through which development accelerated fertility decline. Later, in a significant departure from the generalized assumptions made by earlier demographers, critics have tended to neglect the role of urbanization in fertility decline, or else to deny its influence altogether. Given the uncertainties present in the literature about the relationship of urbanization and fertility decline, and the lack of suitable and timely data to measure these relationships properly on a worldwide scale, the objective of this paper is to apply a statistical model that assumes a structure where urbanization has direct and indirect effects on TFR decline. Despite the enormous variety of situations found, the results of a structured model at country level suggest that urbanization does have a significant and large influence on both fertility and on other factors that affect fertility decline. An analysis of a case study on the Brazilian data is also presented.

Easterlin’s researches show that the birth cohort size will influence individual welfare. China has experience three times of baby boom and baby bust. We’d like to explore whether the people born in these special period would have different experiences or not, especially their lifetime educational achievement. So this paper focuses on relationship between birth cohort size and Individual educational achievement.
We classify the birth cohort size into absolute birth cohort size and relative birth cohort size. Using 2005 Chinese General Social Survey data, we apply regression to test the influence of birth cohort size on educational achievement. Besides, we also apply population micro simulation to explore the educational achievement without the influence of birth cohort size.
Then we find: First, the larger one’s own birth cohort, the lower his educational achievement. Second, the relative birth cohort size has larger influence on educational welfare of cohort members than absolute birth cohort size. Third, the impact of birth cohort size on educational achievement of cohort members will be interfered and adjusted by education policies and other external factors, and also be influenced by subjectively adjustment of cohort members.

The paper deals with policies and fertility at the European level. During the past decade demographic and fertility issues have come to the fore at the European Union level. The Green Paper “Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations”, the establishment of an expert group on demographic issues, the European Demography Forum, and the European Demography Reports are signs of the gain in importance of fertility issues at the EU level. So far, the competences to deal with fertility issues have been mainly with the member states. It is not clear whether the EU initiatives mark the emergence of a new policy field within the EU or whether established policy issues are given a new framing. This paper traces the origin and development of fertility relevant initiatives at the European level starting with the Treaty of Rome in 1957 up to the present. It analyses the processes of the development, the motivations of the initiatives, the implementation at the European level, and the consequences for fertility relevant policies at the level of European member states. It thus allows us to determine to what extent the EU initiates are steps towards a co-ordinated European effort to tackle low fertility.

This paper seeks to extend existing knowledge about whether and how public policies influence fertility. Our research is part of a larger international project on gender equity and low fertility in postindustrial societies. The theoretical framework is designed to capture the ways in which family- and gender-role norms, institutions, and economic context intertwine with the family formation intentions and behaviors of young adults. In our empirical analyses we rely on a mixed-methods approach. In this paper, we combine a quantitative analysis based on data extracted from the Swedish Young Adult Panel Study on attitudes to work, family and gender roles and their possible impact on family formation (intentions) among Swedish young adults in the first decade of the 21st century, with a qualitative analysis of narratives in in-depth interviews (N=80), carried out with women and men aged 24-35 years in two metropolitan areas in Sweden in 2012. The findings for the qualitative part indicate that young adults view Swedish family policies as good even when having little first-hand knowledge of them. We discuss similarities and differences across gender and family status, as well as the implications of our findings for research and for policy design.

Using panel survey data with comparable variables, this study tests whether certain sets of hypotheses that are related to rational-choice and purposive-action theories of birth behavior hold in Korea as well as in Japan. We found many commonalities although the magnitude of the effects of the determinants of fertility differs. First, the negative interaction effect between parity and income on fertility rate predicted by Gary Becker’s theory exists for both Japan and Korea. The theory is supported more strongly for Korea than for Japan, however. This indicates that policies to reduce the costs of attaining “high-quality children,” such as the expenses of high-quality education and daycare, will be effective in raising fertility, but more efficiently so in Korea than in Japan.

Second, we found that the availability of childcare leave increases the rate of marital fertility in both Japan and Korea. This tendency, however, holds more strongly in Japan than in Korea and indicates that childcare leave policies in Japan have been more successful than their Korean counterparts in raising fertility.

This paper investigates patterns of fertility decline in the four Asian Tiger countries with newly industrialized economies (NIEs) - Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan; and empirically test the relative importance of fertility decline and immigration on population aging. This paper contributes to the understanding of fertility decline in these four countries in the context of prominent demographic theoretical frameworks of fertility decline. Furthermore, drawing from emerging literature on the cause and consequences of “ultra-low” fertility in these countries, I aim to provide a comprehensive theoretical framework to better understand the fertility decline in these four countries in region-specific context rather than through convergence to the West paradigm. In addition, using the cohort-component population projection method, I test the effects of fertility decline and immigration on population aging. Findings suggest fertility decline in these four countries is a complex process that requires a comprehensive theoretical framework. In addition, fertility decline has a greater impact than immigration on population aging; and there is the need to focus on public policy to address the low fertility rather than immigration in these countries.

Indonesia is experiencing a rapid decline of its total fertility rate (TFR) over the last five decades. Adopting a strong anti natalist policy since 1970s with different time settings allows markedly variation in the level of TFR among provinces. Among Java-Bali provinces, three provinces (DI. Yogyakarta, DKI. Jakarta and East Java) reached replacement level in 1991, followed by Bali (1994) and Central Java (2003). Unlike DKI Jakarta and East Java where the fertility rate slightly fluctuates, DI. Yogyakarta indicates a consistent declining and halves the size in 2007 at 1.5. Limited studies on a persistent trend of reaching fertility at well below replacement level in Indonesia brings this paper aiming to look at the dynamic and contextual factors of fertility reduction in DI. Yogyakarta by using a series of Indonesia population census and IDHS 2003 & 2007. The result confirms that higher level of women education and women in labor force, delayed women age at first marriage, higher median age at first birth and longer birth spacing exert as major predicting factors. Like many other developed countries, voluntarily childlessness is also appearing. Having no spatial population policy and measures, some appropriate recommendations are deliberately discussed and proposed.

Over the past decades South Korea’s female labor force participation rates have increased, while its fertility decline has been dramatic. The family planning program implemented in 1962 is frequently argued to have initiated this fertility plunge. This study explores how women’s labor force participation is associated with second birth rates in South Korea; and how the family planning program among other factors may have contributed to this relationship. Event history analysis has been applied to longitudinal data. Results show that one-child mothers in the labor force has significantly lower second birth rates than homemakers, suggesting that labor force participation after first birth signals an interruption of a woman’s reproductive career. The second birth trend during the 1980s and 1990s partly developed in response to changes in the family planning program. The program abolishment in 1988 seems to have temporarily exhilarated second birth rates of homemakers, in particular.

The decline in fertility is more prominent in the southern regions in comparison to other regions of India. In this regard how much change in fertility in lowest fertility states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu (mean children ever born is less than 2.5) could be attributed because of household wealth index apart from other explanatory factors is remains unanswered. The research hypothesis is that economic status of the household is the main factor of fertility decline although there is still debate about which are the predominant factors? With the help of decomposition analysis by using data from National Family Health Survey, 1992-93 and 2005-06 we will quantify the role of each independent covariate. So, an attempt has been made to examine the contribution of each selected covariate to the overall decline in fertility of Kerala and Tamil Nadu states, with the help of Poisson regression decomposition analysis. Analysis reveals that in both the states propensity component explained more than 50% of the total change in fertility. Number of living sons and daughters, women’s education and contraceptive use contributed significantly in overall declining the fertility. More specifically, women belong to medium and upper wealth quintiles, educated women contributed more in overall declining the fertility.

Postponement of parenthood contributed heavily to the emergence of subreplacement fertility in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s. Recuperation of fertility has gained importance in determining period fertility levels and is associated with policies that reduce the opportunity costs of fertility and support dual earners in combining work and family. We use data from the European Social Survey to assess the impact of economic and policy contexts on first birth hazards of men and women in 14 EU countries between 1970 and 2005. Using multilevel discrete-time hazard models, we focus on differential effects of these contextual factors by age, gender and socio-economic position. Results show that adverse economic conditions significantly reduce first birth hazards of both men and women below age 30, with effect being more pronounced among the higher educated. After age 30, family policies contribute to the recuperation of fertility but the effects vary by socio-economic groups.