Will middle-income countries reach below-replacement fertility?

The objective of this study, therefore, is to examine the fertility levels, trends, differentials and to try to explain the causes of the observed fertility change. An attempt to speculate on future prospects for fertility is also undertaken. The primary sources of data are the censuses and different surveys conducted in Botswana since the mid-1980s. Overall four population censuses, four Botswana Family Health Surveys and two Botswana Demographic Surveys were used in the analysis. In this paper we use data from the Botswana Family Health Survey III and IV to do detailed analysis on the relationships between fertility and its correlates. Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to address various aspects of the research question. Using various fertility measures, there is evidence that suggests that sustained fertility decline is taking place in the country. There appears to an overwhelming evidence to suggest that fertility in Botswana will continue to decline in the future given all the changing socio-economic, demographic and cultural factors. All the factors that promote fertility decline appear to operate in the country and thus will work to ensure sustained fertility decline.

This study examines the complex interactions of social transformation and childbearing patterns that result in the empirical patterns of fertility during the five decades from the 1960s to 2011. South Africa is widely expected to experience a below-replacement level of fertility before other countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa. However, the trend of fertility especially in the past decade erodes confidence in the imminence of a replacement level of fertility. From the onset of a universal decline during the 1960s, the national total fertility rate has declined only slowly with no decisive downward trend since the beginning of the third millennium. Data from the 2011 census, recent birth registration statistics and information from other sources do not suggest the prospects of a rapid decline in national fertility in the short term. Estimates of recent total fertility rate since 2007 range narrowly between 2.7 and 2.8. We argue that in South Africa and other societies with no clear evidence of a sharp decline in recent fertility, the prevailing trend could be an outcome of reproductive strategies that respond to practical challenges of improving the material well-being of women and couples in the society.

Though the fertility transition has taken place in almost every state, the population of India is increasing fast. During 2001-11, about 181 Millions of people were added to the country. Madhya Pradesh is second in terms of its geographical spread (308,244 sq. km.) and the total population is 72,597,565 according to 2011 census. This paper is attempted to examine the change in proximate determinants of fertility, age at marriage, induced abortion, contraceptive use and post-partum amenorrhea, among literate and illiterate women in Madhya Pradesh. The study used data from various sources such as the Sample Registration System (SRS), the National Family health surveys (NFHS1 and NFHS 3), District Level Household Surveys (DLHS 1, DLHS2 and DLHS 3) and census of India. The Bongaarts model is used to examine the contribution of proximate determinants on fertility. It was found that a 19.4% reduction in TFR was observed during 2001 to 2010. However, marriage contributed 1% increase with respect to change in TFR among illiterate women compared to 3% decline among literate women. Contraceptive use has contributed 27% decline in TFR among illiterate women compared to 12% among literate women. Induced abortion has contributed 1% increase with respect to change in TFR among illiterate women compared to 4% increase among literate women.

Introduction: A woman’s effective reproductive span is not only important with regard to her health status but also as a deciding factor for the number of children she would bear during her lifetime. Gradually increasing age at marriage among women in India and decreasing age at sterilisation indicate that females’ effective reproductive spans are contracting.
Objectives: This study aims to analyze the effective reproductive spans of Indian women by successive marriage cohorts.
Methods: This study utilized data from the National Family Health Survey 3, India, 2005-06.
Results: From 1992-93 to 2005-06, the median age at which women married increased from 16.1 to 16.8 and the age at which they got sterilized declined from 26.6 to 25.5 years. The effective reproductive span of women of the successive marriage cohorts decreased from 11.5 years among those who married in 1970s to 9 years among those who married in 1980s, 6.4 years among those who got married in 1990s and 2.8 years among those who got married in 2000-04.
Conclusion: These findings suggest that women are opting to end their reproductive span faster than women of the older generation did sterilization there is a gradual shrink in the effective reproductive span of women.

This study investigates the fertility transition and convergence, and emerging patterns. Change-Point analyses indicate that the fertility in India observed multiple critical change-points. Considerable variation observed across the states in terms of initiation of transition and critical change points. Beta and Sigma convergence analyses indicate divergence in fertility rates across the states until 2000, divergence replaced with convergence for recent period. Convergence and low fertility clubs such as south Indian club, higher socioeconomic groups and non-slum urban areas are identified by introducing regional and socioeconomic group dummies into conditional Barro-Regression model. The factors associated with low and lowest-low fertility in India are identified by regression analyses. The higher education of women, greater mean age at first birth, breastfeed above 24 months, using any method of contraception, unmet need for limiting are emerged as a critical factors of low fertility while along with higher education, age at first birth above 30 years, couple desire to limit child bearing (after having only 1 living child), sex preference for both men and women become critical predictors of the women for lowest low fertility.

This study uses a multilevel logistic analysis to measure in what extent work and family conflict and gender relations at the municipality level are associated with the odds to have a child at the individual level in different parities, controlled by age and socio-economic characteristics. We analyze only married or cohabiting women (in an attempt to capture only intended fertility) from 15 to 49 years old. We observe that the work and family conflict variable affects negatively the first birth order, and positively the second and third in 2010 when Brazil had below replacement fertility. It has no effect in births of fourth order. In 2000 this variable was mostly not significant in any birth order. An interesting relation was found between the work and family variable and type of labor contract. The variable used to measure gender relations in the county level had no effect in 2000 and 2010.

Sri Lanka evidences in achieving replacement fertility in the late twentieth century which was faster than other South Asian countries. Women’s fertility desires and decisions play a significant role in determining the level of fertility of a country. Both desires and decisions are determined by a number of socioeconomic and cultural factors. Previous studies focused on fertility desires and its determinants by ignoring women’s fertility decisions. Therefore, this study explores the factors affecting both fertility desires and decisions of married women in Sri Lanka. The data for this study is obtained from the 2006/2007 Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey. The present study sample included 14,692 ever-married women, aged 15-49 years. The survey collected data on nuptiality, fertility, fertility regulation, fertility preferences, infant and child mortality, and health. Both descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses are used. Ideal number of children is taken as the dependent variable. The findings indicate that women’s education and the community level characteristics (residential sector and ethnicity) and economic status are vital parameters in determining both fertility desires and decisions. It is evident that education and poverty have negatively associated with decision for having an additional child

There are comprehensible differentials in fertility transition in developed and developing countries. The broad objective of this paper is to carry out a gap analysis in causes, performances and implications of fertility transitions in developed and developing countries and thereby to suggest benchmarks for these dimensions. The first objective deals with the trend in fertility decline in both groups of countries. Secondly, the gaps in causal factors of fertility transition have been examined. Thirdly, benchmarks of causal factors of fertility transitions on the basis of experiences of developed countries have been proposed and thereby to compare and study the gaps between performance in fertility transitions by developing countries and benchmarks. Lastly, both short-term and long-term implications of fertility transitions on demographic, social and economic aspects in developing countries have been examined. Findings reveal that there are evidences of significant heterogeneous gaps in all aspects of fertility transitions in developing countries.

Fertility decline below replacement level is a widely extended phenomenon in many countries. In Uruguay, the situation is rather peculiar: it is a middle income Latin American country whose population dynamics is similar to that of Western European countries (below replacement fertility and advanced population aging). The purpose of this paper is to study the profile of the fertility decline in Uruguay by using estimates which have not been used in the past. Mainly, by decomposing tempo and quantum effects in period fertility indicators, including analysis by birth order. The aim is to understand to which extent the decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) can be attributed to the fertility level and to which extent to the fertility calendar. Our results show a sustained decline of the fertility quantum as estimated by the conventional TFR, due to a tempo effect during the economic crisis years (2000-2003) that continued its trend even when this tempo effect had finished, situating Uruguayan fertility below replacement. We discuss the relevance of the public use of the TFR along with adjusted measures, in order to provide more accurate evidence for policy making in LAC countries.

The first decade of this century represented the entry of Brazil in the group of below replacement fertility countries, about 40 years after the onset of the fertility transition in the country. The country's average does not reflect the differentials in reproductive behavior of the Brazilian women. Considering the example of the extremes educational levels (women less than 4 years versus women higher than 10 years of schooling), one can observe that although the differentials decreases over time, they are still considerable. The main objective of this paper is to present fertility scenarios for 2015, 2020 and 2025 based on the projection of the educational level of women. Projecting schooling one may ask: what will happen to fertility if women adopt the reproductive behavior observed in 2010? And if the differentials among different schooling levels women decrease? Will Brazil reach lowest low levels?