Will middle-income countries reach below-replacement fertility?

This paper evaluates fertility changes, controlling for education, in five Latin American countries that have completed or are in the later stages of demographic transition. This study aims to assess the chances that some countries in the region will reach low or lowest-low fertility levels in the near future. The authors performed two decomposition exercises. First, a retrospective decomposition exercise evaluated the impact of changes in women’s educational composition and in the age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) on the observed decline in total fertility rates (TFR) between 2000 and 2010. Next, a prospective decomposition projects future educational composition and evaluated the expected decline in TFR if the series of ASFR are kept constant at the 2010 level. These exercises were applied to Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Uruguay, and Colombia using IPUMS microdata (Minnesota Population Center 2012).

Total fertility rate of most of developed countries and some developing countries reached to blow replacement level and every period we witness of reduce of total fertility rate in some developing or middle income countries.
About 53 countries of the world are in the middle income level in 2010. We classified these Countries to three groups by total fertility rate:
First; Countries that their total fertility rates over than replacement level, second are reached at replacement level and third are below replacement level.
Total fertility rate of the two countries among above countries has not reported. From the rest of these countries, 22 countries are in group 1, 2 countries are in group 2 and 27 countries are in group 3.
This study is going to assess the main socioeconomic indices of 27 middle-income countries in which their total fertility rate has not reached at replacement level, and according to this index, their future level of decline and the time of their replacement level can be expected.
Methodology of this study is Panel Data Analysis. “Panel data” refers to the pooling of observations on a cross-section of countries, firms, etc, and needed data are worked out from Population Division of United States, World Bank and Statistical Year Books.

Kerala state in India has already reached below-replacement fertility level in the 1990s while the rest of India was experiencing high or mid-level fertility. With this backdrop, the objectives of this paper are two-fold; (a) to explore the plausible factors associated with the fertility transition in Kerala and its socioeconomic and health policy implications and (b) to identify lessons to be learnt from Kerala experience for fertility transition in middle or low income countries. The underlying factors that led to the fertility transition were explored using bi-variate and multi-variate techniques. An enhanced level of human development achieved, without a threshold level of economic growth, was likely to be the main contributor. Population momentum and ‘demographic dividends’ appear strong. Population density will take a staggering level of 1,101 persons per sq km in 2026 and its consequences are discussed. The tempo of population-ageing is also very high.

What are the replicable factors of Kerala experience in the midst of high fertility ? What are the lessons to be learnt from this experience relevant for low and middle income countries? These questions are dealt with in detail in this paper.

In Sri Lanka, during the past century, the female age at marriage increased almost by seven years from 18.3 years in 1901 to 25.5 years in 1993. Since then age at marriage of females demonstrated a significant decline - to low as 23.6 years in 2006-07. Along with the decline among the females age at marriage of males also shows a decline. The main objective of this paper is to explore the impact of this unexpected decline in age at marriage of both sexes, particularly females, on fertility change and implications in Sri Lanka. The study analyses data primarily from the Population Censuses and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). The Bongaarts’s Decomposition Technique has been applied to investigate the impact of age at marriage on fertility increase. The analysis found that proportion of women married has significantly impact on the increase of fertility in Sri Lanka during the period of 2000 and 2006-07. The paper further discusses the relevant policy implications by emphasizing the importance of improving the knowledge of contraceptive use among youth and effectively implementing the existing law relating to age at marriage.

This study aims to examine linkages between development indicators such as demographic factors, socio-economic factors and other factors with preferred family size and family planning practices and these factor’s entire linkages with replacement level of fertility in Nepal.

Secondary analysis of 2011 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey data will be performed to examine the relationship between socio-economic, demographic and other factors with preferences and use of a modern method of contraception among currently married, nonpregnant women between the ages of 15 and 49.

The relationship will further be analyzed to assess whether the fertility decline in Nepal is due to use of modern contraception and fertility preferences and based on this analysis, the conclusion will be drawn whether Nepal is in the path of replacement fertility. Frequencies will be examined; bivariate and multivariate analysis will be undertaken using logistic regression analysis taking survey weight into account. The software STATA12 will be used for data analysis. This kind of relationship between socio-economic, demographic factors with family and their entire relationship with fertility preference, contraceptive practices and actual fertility is necessary to be searched for the family planning policy implications in Nepal.

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban middle classes, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004-2005, this paper examines the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. Better understanding of the correlates of this small but distinct segment of society also provides a window into the role of demographic behaviour in shaping the future of social inequality in a society undergoing rapid transition.

After a swift decline during the 1990s related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, fertility has been stagnating and/or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. So far, this issue has not been the subject of strong interest from demographers. In this study, I investigate different hypotheses contributing to understand better the recent changes in the region: data artifacts (improvement in vital registration (VR) system), population composition effect, and economic context. The comparison of fertility data from the VR with other estimates from other data sources and/or estimation methods gives confidence that the recent changes are real and that the data artifact hypothesis can be ruled out. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the population composition effect and the economic context. As fertility patterns differ between ethnic groups, the out-migration of large portions of specific ethnic groups influences ultimately the course of fertility at the country level. Further, the effect of the diverse economic fortunes among Central Asian countries is as well considered as a possible factor contributing to the recent fertility trends in the region.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
As per the technical committee projections and target set by government the TFR will reach a level of 2.7-2.9 by 2016. However, there is no clear guidance on the level of CPR and appropriate methods mix to achieve that TFR.
Under this backdrop the specific objectives of the paper is to identify
1. targeted level of CPR and method mix suitable for achieving a targeted TFR
2. appropriate method mix that government of Bihar should focus
DATA AND METHOD
The data for the projection is used from the NFHS and AHS. The assumptions related to different population characteristics “Technical group on projection, GoI, 2006.
FINDINGS
It is found that the CPR level of 50 per cent, with a method mix close to Bihar urban and focused on IUD is best for Bihar. The target for Fst and IUD assigned for the state is unrealistic. The HMIS data of Bihar is subject to over reporting of acceptors.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The family planning program in Bihar should be focused on targeting 5 lakhs of IUD and female sterilization per year, considering the infrastructural constraints.

After converging towards replacement level, fertility in the Maghreb is now following contrasting trends. In Tunisia, the total fertility rate (TFR) has levelled off and remained stable at 2.1 children per woman since 1999. In Algeria, after dipping to 2.2 in the early 2000s, fertility has increased steadily, reaching almost 2.9 in 2010. In Morocco and Libya, meanwhile, where fertility was still above replacement in 2000, the TFR has continued its rapid decline, down to 2.2 and 2.5 children per woman, respectively. Not only has fertility remained above replacement level in all of these countries, but Algeria has even seen a sharp upturn in the last decade, As in the past for fertility decline, the change in age at marriage is now the key factor behind the stabilization at 2 children per woman in Tunisia and in the increase to almost 3 in Algeria. Has the two-child model lost its appeal in the latter country or changes in marriage tempo matters only? All available data from vital statistics, censuses and surveys will be used to try answering the question.