Any prospects of fertility recovery in low-fertility societies?

Bangladeshi women prefer to have at least two children norm and who proceed to higher order births mainly constitute a selected group. In this context, this study finds out the summary measures of the third birth intensities by selected socioeconomic characteristics by using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007 data. Quantum and tempo dimension of fertility has been observed by Kaplan-Meier birth function. The discrete failure time hazard model has been applied to birth interval data. The result shows that two-thirds of the two children mothers have had a third birth within 5 years of their second birth. The cumulative proportions of women having third birth systematically decrease with increasing age at second birth. The majority of women who have given third birth are apparently the lowest educated women in Bangladesh. The sex preference has a higher influence on progression in the transition to third birth. A woman who is son-less with two female children, the risk of having a third birth is higher than that of women with two sons. Previous child death experiences have impact on third birth intensities. The propensity to give a third birth is 1.2 times higher among Muslim women than their non-Muslim counterparts.

This paper examines the role of micro-level gender equity in explaining low fertility. Building on Peter McDonald’s (2000a; 2000b) theory of gender equity, I expand the concept of gender equity to micro-level by incorporating individual lived experience, attitudes associated with gender roles, and women’s household decision making ability. I select South Korea as a case study in which both institutional forces of lowest-low fertility and massive social and economic changes come into play in shaping women’s childbearing behavior. I address the following two research questions: What are the factors that influence women’s fertility goal attainment over time? Does micro-level gender equity play a large role? This paper is based on three waves of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women & Families from 2007 to 2010. These results can expand upon McDonald, and enhance the ways in which how gender equity can be better conceptualized and operationalized for studies of fertility variations across individuals, even within a single context with lowest-low fertility. The individual-level investigation highlighting the role of micro-level gender equity may provide insights into women’s resilience in making larger family preferences within the institutional context that support lowest-low fertility.

The role of urbanization in fertility decline has been the object of much academic discussion. Earlier studies had almost unanimously agreed that since urban fertility rates were systematically lower than rural fertility rates, then there must be something about urban areas in general that induces lower fertility. Thus, urbanization was considered a key process through which development accelerated fertility decline. Later, in a significant departure from the generalized assumptions made by earlier demographers, critics have tended to neglect the role of urbanization in fertility decline, or else to deny its influence altogether. Given the uncertainties present in the literature about the relationship of urbanization and fertility decline, and the lack of suitable and timely data to measure these relationships properly on a worldwide scale, the objective of this paper is to apply a statistical model that assumes a structure where urbanization has direct and indirect effects on TFR decline. Despite the enormous variety of situations found, the results of a structured model at country level suggest that urbanization does have a significant and large influence on both fertility and on other factors that affect fertility decline. An analysis of a case study on the Brazilian data is also presented.

In countries which are at the late stages of demographic transition, couples tend to have smaller number of children than they desire. However, the converse is true in countries which are still struggling to complete their demographic transition. In the latter group, couples tend to have more children than they actually want. According to the National Family Health Survey, 2005-06 (NFHS-3), in India the total wanted fertility rate—a measure of desired fertility—was 1.9 per woman compared with the observed total fertility rate of 2.7 per woman, showing a gap of 42%. However, there is a great geographic diversity in India as far as the state of demographic transition is concerned. As Dyson and Moore (1983) posit, there are “two demographic regimes” in India with the north characterized by high fertility and the south by low fertility. This north-south divide is also apparent in the case of desired or wanted fertility. In 2005-06, the wanted fertility rate in northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar was above the replacement level, which exceeded the actual fertility rate by about 65%. In contrast, in southern states such as Kerala and Andhra Pradesh the level of wanted fertility was much lower and it exceeded the actual fertility by less than 20%. Although over the past two decades, both actual and wanted fertil

Period total fertility has been recovering in Europe since the early 21st century and the role of immigration has been questioned in this regard. In this paper we aimed to study the extent to which mothers of foreign descent contributed to this recovery of period fertility in the Flemish Region of Belgium. Besides calculating fertility rates for different nationality groups, we furthermore proposed a method to indirectly assess the impact of births to foreign women on age-specific and total fertility in a context where this information is lacking. Results show first that fertility in the Flemish Region of Belgium is minimally affected by women of foreign nationality. Second, we find that period fertility would also have recovered if naturalized women would not have given birth. We conclude that the fertility recovery is mainly due to the increase of the fertility of women over 30 and reduced fertility postponement among native women.

Period total fertility has been recovering in Europe since the early 21st century and the role of immigration has been questioned in this regard. In this paper we aimed to study the extent to which mothers of foreign descent contributed to this recovery of period fertility in the Flemish Region of Belgium. Besides calculating fertility rates for different nationality groups, we furthermore proposed a method to indirectly assess the impact of births to foreign women on age-specific and total fertility in a context where this information is lacking. Results show first that fertility in the Flemish Region of Belgium is minimally affected by women of foreign nationality. Second, we find that period fertility would also have recovered if naturalized women would not have given birth. We conclude that the fertility recovery is mainly due to the increase of the fertility of women over 30 and reduced fertility postponement among native women.

The duration of the waiting time to first conception is much influenced by the female's age at marriage. The waiting time to first conception is longer for females of lower ages at marriage due to the biological factor viz., adolescent sterility and various sociological factors associated with it. However, this duration becomes shorter for females of higher ages at marriage as the strictness of the social norms and taboos decreases with increasing age. Hence, the study of waiting time to first conception under different sampling frame, ascertained according to different ages at marriage is of greater importance for researchers. Here, for females of lower ages at marriage (less than equal to 15 years), two probability models for waiting time to first conception are being considered to study which factors mainly influence this duration variable. These models are applied on the data of first birth interval obtained from NFHS-III data and M.L. estimates of the parameters of the two models are obtained. Although both models are derived under different sets of assumptions, the analysis shows that both the models are appropriate, but one of them is fitting well (as per Akaike information criterion) than the other.

Viewing comparative fertility trends through a prism of World War II (WWII) alliances, an odd pattern emerges. The members of the Tripartite Pact—Italy, Germany, and Japan—have among the lowest fertility rates in the world, while the countries that led the Allies at the end of World War II—Great Britain, the USA, and France—are outliers for their high fertility. This paper first argues that the association is not mere coincidence, but the product of specific cultural and institutional formations that emerged after the war. How could wartime alliances half a century ago influence contemporary fertility? What social, cultural, and institutional forces and processes account for these remarkable differences? And what do those forces and processes imply for theories of fertility more generally? This paper uses long-term national fertility trends to address these broader questions. We argue that many of the economic and cultural factors most critical to fertility rates have deep political roots. A coherent model of low fertility must be embedded in a comprehensive theory of social action. Social action, in turn, entails allegiances and alliances, both individual and collective.

The paper deals with policies and fertility at the European level. During the past decade demographic and fertility issues have come to the fore at the European Union level. The Green Paper “Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations”, the establishment of an expert group on demographic issues, the European Demography Forum, and the European Demography Reports are signs of the gain in importance of fertility issues at the EU level. So far, the competences to deal with fertility issues have been mainly with the member states. It is not clear whether the EU initiatives mark the emergence of a new policy field within the EU or whether established policy issues are given a new framing. This paper traces the origin and development of fertility relevant initiatives at the European level starting with the Treaty of Rome in 1957 up to the present. It analyses the processes of the development, the motivations of the initiatives, the implementation at the European level, and the consequences for fertility relevant policies at the level of European member states. It thus allows us to determine to what extent the EU initiates are steps towards a co-ordinated European effort to tackle low fertility.

Relationship between fertility and female employment has been widely recognized in demographic literature. Also, the impact of atypical working hours, i.e. work involving long and overtime work hours and working at weekends, on work-family conflict has been the subject of several studies. However, research linking such working conditions to fertility behaviour remains scarce. The aim of this study is to explore whether atypical working hours affects women’s childbearing behaviour. The research focus is on fertility intentions within the next three years, which are assumed to be a valid predictor of subsequent reproductive behaviour. Data are used from the fifth round of the European Social Survey. Sample is restricted to women aged 18 to 45 living with a partner/husband. Control variables include age, number of children living in the household and years of full-time education. Preliminary results show a statistically significant impact of atypical working hours on childbearing intentions indicating that women who work evenings/nights and during weekends are more likely not to intend a(nother) child within the given time period. Furthermore, institutional and national specific factors such as childcare provision and parental leave may influence the ability to combine family with professional life.