Any prospects of fertility recovery in low-fertility societies?

This paper seeks to extend existing knowledge about whether and how public policies influence fertility. Our research is part of a larger international project on gender equity and low fertility in postindustrial societies. The theoretical framework is designed to capture the ways in which family- and gender-role norms, institutions, and economic context intertwine with the family formation intentions and behaviors of young adults. In our empirical analyses we rely on a mixed-methods approach. In this paper, we combine a quantitative analysis based on data extracted from the Swedish Young Adult Panel Study on attitudes to work, family and gender roles and their possible impact on family formation (intentions) among Swedish young adults in the first decade of the 21st century, with a qualitative analysis of narratives in in-depth interviews (N=80), carried out with women and men aged 24-35 years in two metropolitan areas in Sweden in 2012. The findings for the qualitative part indicate that young adults view Swedish family policies as good even when having little first-hand knowledge of them. We discuss similarities and differences across gender and family status, as well as the implications of our findings for research and for policy design.

Migration process has implications for changing fertility behaviour and family formation through adaptation, disruption, and selection processes. The study analyzed differentials in fertility levels of migrant and non-migrant married women and factors associated with these, using NDHS 2008 dataset. Findings of the study found evidence of substantial variations in the fertility levels of migrants and non-migrants. The mean children ever born for migrants and non-migrants were estimated at four and five children respectively. The odds of reporting five or more children increased by 27% among non-migrants compared to migrants counterparts. Amongst other variables predicting fertility behaviour, age at first marriage, education, women in high wealth index from Yoruba tribe and partners’ education exercised greater effects on lowering fertility among migrants than they did among non-migrants. The study raises issue on the implications of migration process for fertility reduction and the need for profound focus on the factors sustaining high fertility in Nigeria.

Fertility remains high in Burkina Faso as a whole, but the fertility transition is well advanced in the capital city, Ouagadougou. Formal neighbourhoods, in the centre of the city, are surrounded by informal areas devoid of public services. Migrants from the countryside, less educated women, and poor families more often live in informal areas. A Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) has been settled in 2008 at the periphery of the city. The city appears to be very heterogeneous in terms of fertility: the total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.8 children per woman in the formal areas followed, as against 3.5 in informal areas.
Composition effects and differences in fertility preferences and unmet needs for family planning are not sufficient to explain this large gap, which may be due, at least partially, to an artefact. Migration to the city and, even more, migration from formal areas to informal areas, seem to be highly related to fertility behaviour, so that TFRs may be biased by selective migrations. Our aim in this paper is to model jointly migrations and fertility in order to check whether selective migrations could explain these differences (and especially the low fertility level in the formal areas).

Previous studies have addressed the fertility transition in Pakistan; however, no study has focused so far on the fertility changes by parity progression ratio and birth spacing as well as on sub-national fertility dynamics. It is well documented that fertility transition in Pakistan started in the late 1980s. However, little is known about the fertility changes at sub-national level. We use two DHS conducted in Pakistan and PRHFPS 2000-01 to examine the various aspect of fertility transition in Pakistan at sub-national level. We use synthetic parity progression ratios which, besides providing estimates for average lifetime parity, also allow for decomposition of lifetime parity by birth order. In addition to the discussion of the substantive results, the paper also comments on the quality of survey data in Pakistan.

The fertility decline has been observed in most regions of the developing world over the last three decades. Major fertility decline have occurred in populations that are poor, with large rural and illiterate strata. This situation raises questions about the factors responsible for fertility transition. This paper critically examines fertility levels, trends, and the role of proximate determinants of fertility decline by economic status (poor/non-poor) in selected Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines and Vietnam. Economic status is measured by computing a ‘wealth index’, i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis. In analyzing the major proximate determinants we applied Bongaarts model to data obtained from three rounds of DHS surveys. The contribution of each of the major proximate variables has examined through the decomposition of TFR for three points of time. Results indicate that fertility is comparatively higher among poor than non-poor women however; it is declining gradually probably due to the increasing CPR and diffusion of idea of perceived benefits of small family size. Contraceptive practice is playing the key role in fertility decline among poor and non-poor women.

The study employed descriptive survey research design using both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques. While quantitative data were collected from 760 respondents, seven FGDs and 15 IDIs were conducted to complement questionnaire data. Fertility preferences and outcomes were positively correlated (r =0.544, P<.001) regardless of the social milieu. A tendency for reversal to dominant fertility preference at place of origin on return was associated with high premium placed on children, stigma ascribed to few children and infertility and male-child preference. Policy and national programmes that seek reduction in fertility and its concomitant effects should target the generality of the people given that fertility preferences and outcomes were not significantly different between migrants and non-migrants. Without a deliberate intervention, family size preference among women will remain high as a reflection of pronatalism and patriarchal ethos that pervade Benin City.

In this study, Bongaarts model is applied for Turkish and Kurdish speaking women comparatively, using data from 1998 and 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys. Bongaarts model uses four factors that affect fertility. These are proportion of married women, use of contraception, induced abortion and infecondity due to breasfeeding. Other determinats are assumed to have less negligible effects on fertility.
The results imply that total natural marital fertility rate is increasing for both language groups depicting the decreasing postpartum infecundability. This is especially eminent for Kurdish speaking women where total natural marital fertility rate has increased from 12,29 in 1998 to 13,72 in 2008. Total marial fertility rate and the implied total fertility rate are decreasing for both language groups.
The contributions of the indexes to the total differentitation between total natural fertility rate and the implied total fertility rate are considered. The highest contribution is from index of contraception which is followed by index of proprtion married for both language groups. For Turkish speaking women contribution of index of proportion married has only changed very slightly (from 63,94 per cent to 63,20 per cent). On the other hand for Kurdish speaking women it has increased from 49,14 to 67,89 per cent.

This paper uses Peru DHS from 2008-2010 and birth cohorts (1970-1988) to estimate the effect of female education on teen fertility. It also estimates the role of education on two intermediate variables: age at marriage and current use of contraception. The analysis exploits an exogenous change in education produced by increased length of compulsory education in Peru from 6 to 11 years in 1994

The results show that a change in compulsory education is positively associated with formal schooling attained. The instrumental variable (IV) estimates show a statistically significant effect on reducing the probability of having a first birth between 18 and 19 years, which is post-compulsory education age, but not between 15 and 17 years. Results also indicate that better educated women are less likely to marry before 20 years of age and significantly more likely to use contraception. The IV estimates are larger than the (OLS) on the three outcomes studied suggesting the possibility of heterogeneous effects of the educational reform and measurement error on schooling. Results are relevant for policymakers aiming to reduce teenage fertility and increase educational attainment.

Far from being an asocial process, reproductive decision-making in humans is affected by family and other social networks. However, the direction and strength of kin effects is inconsistent across studies. Explaining this variation requires a better understanding of what various fertility outcomes mean functionally and of each individual’s strategic interests. Fertility metrics such as age at first birth, interbirth intervals, and total number of births are not as clearly related to a woman’s fitness as say, child survival rates. Furthermore, these outcomes are functionally distinct, and decisions about them can be made independently of one another. Additionally complicating matters, woman and her kin do not always have the same strategic considerations. In this paper, we develop a framework for comparing various accounts of why kin affect fertility. We test these possibilities by compiling and analyzing a database of kin effects on fertility from 130 articles from pre- and post-demographic transition settings. Focusing on how parents and in-laws might affect different fertility outcomes, we find that parents are more likely to have anti-natal effects on a woman’s total fertility, and age at first birth, while in-laws are more consistently pro-natal. However, both parents and in-laws tend to shorten inter-birth intervals.

A decomposition of changes in fertility in two different sub-periods over time shows that the reproductive behavior of younger and older women. Fertility behavior of women in the society can be excess through mathematical models, here in this study the fertility behavior over time is modeled using bivariate geometric distribution. The objective of this paper is to explain the changes in fertility rates, focusing in particular on the postponement of childbearing in Uttar Pradesh, India with an emphasis on socio-economic considerations. Data have been taken from the third round of NFHS. Cultural diversity in Uttar Pradesh is reflected in substantial demographic variation across the nation; therefore, fertility levels and trends are also estimated by urban-rural residence for the last two consecutive five years periods preceding the survey. The paper also presents an appropriate method for estimating the parameters involved in the model. The model also explains the proportion of childless female during both the period under consideration.