Any prospects of fertility recovery in low-fertility societies?

The postponement or advancement of births increases or decreases mean age at childbearing which in turn, distorts period TFR. This is true for any population undergoing fertility transition. However, despite the ubiquity of strong evidences of postponement of births across countries, research so far on tempo effects is disproportionately focused on developed nations with almost neglected focus in the developing countries. In attempt to fulfill this research gap, this study examines role of the tempo effects in period fertility trends in India. Using merged birth histories of three rounds of NFHS (19992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06), in this paper, we estimated fertility trends and the mean ages at child bearing by birth orders for the past 25 years (1981-2006) in India. Results indicate that cumulated fertility before age 40 in India declined from around 4.5 to 2.7 during 1981-2006 with urban fertility levels being lower than rural areas. Fertility trends by birth order show that fertility declined for all births orders with relatively higher decline for higher order births. The mean age at first birth increased by almost 0.82 years with urban areas showing an increase of 1.1 years during 1981-2006. Results reveal considerable tempo distortions in the period TFRs in India which are more pronounced since 1990s.

Coupled with the population ageing, the continued trends of low fertility (TFR below 1.2) is seen as one of main causes of social problems associated with economic downturn, unstable employment, labor shortage, and the expansion of welfare spending. Studies found that recently trends in childbearing in Korea are associated with changes in marriage pattern such as delay and avoidance of marriage among young Korean women. However, policies aimed at boosting child-bearing are somewhat fragmented. In this regard, it is urgent and inevitable that policy-makers understand the nature and causes of underlying social problems related to low fertility of Korea. This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. Unlike previous studies that were interested in forecasting TFR only, this study’s applied the Generalized log-gamma Distribution Model to predict fertility rate in association with the first marriage in that way, the fertility rate will be estimated with more logical and reasonable accuracy. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing.

The changes in demographic behavior of different countries and factors influencing them have always been objects of theoretical discussions. Due to small population size in Baltic countries the depopulation as a result of low birthrate, short life expectancy and emigration form an existential problem.
We use several methods of multivariate statistics to get more visible picture of demographic processes characterizing demographic transitions and to group the countries with the aim to identify the situation of Baltic countries among all other European countries. As a result of Factor Analysis three well interpretable factors were found. Next we used the factors to discover the demographic behaviour patterns and types that characterize European countries in different time periods since 1960’s. As result the K-means method four groups were formed describing different types of demographic behaviour that characterise European countries in 45-years time perspective. In their demographic development the countries move from one type to another, there were totally 83 transition acts during ten 5-years period, in average each country passed during 45 years 2 transitions. Our hypothesis: the demographic development of Baltic countries follows the regularities of Northern Europe with restrictions caused by historical conditions.

This study analyses the risks and timing of first and second births among four groups: native Estonians, first and second generation immigrant Russians in Estonia, and the immigrants’ origin country population – Russians in Russia. Estonia provides an interesting case where immigration processes occurred earlier than in other Western European countries, and one third of the population consists of foreign-origin population. The aim of the study is to test migration effects on fertility through testing different hypotheses, including selectivity. The Generations and Gender Survey provides internationally comparable data with life history approach from two countries – Estonia and Russia. Piece-wise constant exponential models are used to analyse birth parameters of male and female respondents born between 1924 and 1983, living in urban areas. Sex, birth cohort, educational attainment, type of region of origin, age at migration, partner’s country of birth and age at first birth are included as control variables. Findings do not indicate first generation migrants’ fertility convergence towards native Estonians for both first and second birth. Second generation migrants have socialised to the host society when the first birth is concerned, but the socialisation hypothesis is not confirmed in case of second birth.

The objective of family welfare programme is to reduce the high birth rate in the population. Serious concerns have been expressed regarding population growth and its impact on human welfare. Objective of the study is to understand the changes in unwanted fertility and cost of regulation and the strength of family planning programme and overall development in determining the wanted and natural fertility in some selected Asian Countries during different time period.Study shows that wanted fertility is the main determinant of fertility behavior. The status of family planning is slightly improved but there is need to go a long way as the unmet need is quite large.These countries show declining trend in TFR. It also indicates that policy makers have to do some special efforts to motivate couples for regulate their fertility and must ensure the quality of care in reproductive and child health approach. the effects of development and family planning programme on t
he mediating variables are briefly examined which shows that declining demand for children motivated more couples to regulate their fertility by adopting contraception. It indicates that socio- economic development has the expected negative effect on wanted fertility as well as a positive influence on preference implementation.

The measurement of unintended fertility in cross-sectional studies relies on questions about children already born and is therefore subject to ex post rationalization which is the propensity to reporting children as wanted when they were originally unwanted. Women may feel that to label a child as unwanted is to stigmatize him. In addition, an originally unwanted child is likely to loved one, hence eventually “wanted”.

Evidences on this issue in developing countries are limited. This study using annual information on couples’ fertility preferences collected both retrospectively and prospectively collected as part of a Demographic Surveilliance System in Northern Malawi will add new empirical evidence in this area. We assess the extent of ambivalence of fertility intention by comparing retrospective and prospective fertility intention of the child over three years.

In developing countries like the Philippines, where population growth is quite high, the primary objective of the government is population control. Childlessness has been neglected both as a health problem and as a subject for social science research. The general thrust of both program and research has been on the correlates of high fertility and its regulation. Little, if nothing, was done on the understanding of Filipino childlessness.

In this study, childlessness among currently married women in the Philippines will be examined to establish its extent in the country, and to investigate factors associated with it. Findings shall provide relevant insights on childless women, particularly in making population growth projections, establishing family planning targets, and estimating requirements for services and other relevant developments in medical technology. This research is a valuable step in contributing to the limited literature on childlessness in the Philippines.

A combination of descriptive and inferential statistical methods will be utilized in the analysis. The determinant analysis employs multinomial logistic regression which identifies how closely each explanatory variable is associated with the likelihood of being childless after controlling for the effects of the other variables in the model.

Understanding population growth and fertility patterns are essential in achieving sustainable developments. Various fertility models have been suggested in the developed countries but such is lacking in developing countries. This study assessed factors affecting fertility outcomes among Nigerian women using Poisson regression model.
We used Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, 2008 data consisting 33,385 aged 15-49 years. Multi-factors additive Poisson regression models was fitted to respondents’ total children ever born (CEB) to determine best fitted model for predicting fertility at 5%.significance level while other analysis were done using descriptive statistics.

Mean age of respondents was 28.64±9.59 while average CEB was 2.53±2.7 and 3.42±3.1 in urban and rural areas respectively. Women with tertiary education were about 30% time less likely to have as many children as uneducated (IRR=0.73 95% CI:0.70-0.75). Expected number of children per woman is modeled. In average, an uneducated currently married and unemployed woman aged 40-44 years from rural North-East Nigeria with 25-29 years of marriage would have had 8 children (c=7.59±0.01).

Poisson model is suitable for modeling and predicting expected number of children by women using factors such as age, educational, locality
Key word: Fertility, IRR, Poisson

Is it abnormal that almost 8% Indian women who are higher educated nowadays getting their first child at age 30 or above. So what is the ‘normal’ age of having a first child and when we do talk about late fertility. From a biological and health prospective, the best timing is before a women turns 24 years of age but from a socio-economic prospective, the best timing probably somewhat latter as women is better educated and with a good position in the labour market. Thus postponement behavior prevails. As fertility is increases at later parental ages in most developed countries and this phenomenon is a recent emergence in developing countries. Though, late fertility is not a dominant phenomenon in India but it is an emerging phenomenon. However, virtually there is no formal effort to quantify the late fertility in India. The present paper is just one step in this direction.

The study explored the factors influencing fertility among women in central region of Uganda. UDHS (2006) dataset was used as the source in this research where a sample size for central region was 1583 extracted from the whole female data of 8531.The study focused on women age 15-49 (reproductive age group). Two levels of analysis were used, univariate and bivariate and the data was analysed using SPSS.
According to this research, the results from the study suggest that the study population comprise mainly young age group (below 25 years of age) and age group 15-19 had the highest distribution and the number of mothers married was falling by their age at first marriage and most women were Catholics with 39 percent. Place of residence, age at first marriage, education status and contraceptive-use were significantly associated with fertility, however religion was not significant.
The study concluded that, early age at first marriage is responsible for the delay fertility transition in any society and keeping girls in school would reduce on their exposure to risk of child bearing. Education is inversely associated with fertility levels of woman because of its effects of keeping girls at school there by reducing on their exposure to risk of child bearing. In addition education helps in improving the mothers’ acceptabil