Internal migration and urbanization: Are patterns changing? (1)

Il y a un débat théorique et une discussion politique sur la situation migratoire actuelle dans les aires métropolitaines d’Amérique Latine. Les recensements de l’année 2000 ont permis d’identifier quelques métropoles de la région comme d’émigration nette, mais la plupart d’elles registrent une immigration nette. Compte tenu la disponibilité de micro-données du recensement de 2010, nous allons répondre à la question sur l’attraction migratoire de ces villes. Pourtant, on va travailler avec l’ensemble de micro-données des recensements pour construire une matrice de migration spécifique (en utilisant le lieu de résidence cinq ans avant du recensement). Ensuite, nous allons faire une estimation de l’impact des migrations internes sur la croissance de la population pour 20 villes qui ont un million ou plus de résidents dans cinq pays d’Amérique Latine, en employant les micro-données des recensements de 2000 et 2010 (Brésil, Costa Rica, Equateur, Mexique et Panama). Afin de contrôler l’effet de distorsion de la définition spatiale de l’aire métropolitaine, le calcul s’effectuera en tenant compte au moins de deux définitions géographiques. Et pour distinguer l’impact spatiale de la migration métropolitaine (immigration et émigration dans et entre elles) tous les flux migratoires vont être classés en deux groupes : proche et éloigné

From a geographical perspective, these last decades, Spanish urban areas have constantly expanded. This urban sprawl has broken the traditional compact city model. However, from a demographic point of view, the picture is not as simple as Spanish urban areas have been through a series of growth and stagnation periods with significant spatial differences. This paper firstly intends to describe how the population of Spanish urban areas has increased this last forty years (1970-2011) and then to build, through cluster analysis, a spatial typology grouping urban areas which have similar growth trends. Finally, it analyzes, through factor analysis, the socio-economic causes behind the spatial patterns. 64 urban areas are incorporated to the study. In each of the cases, core city and periphery growth levels have been separately analyzed to enable the construction of an urban growth typology. Descriptive results show that two phenomena, suburbanization and foreign immigration, are the main drivers of a clearly defined spatial pattern in which highly-growing eastern urban areas would be clearly opposed to lower growing western ones. Preliminary analytical results demonstrate that this east-west divide would be manly caused by the deep differences in the economic/labor market structures of the respective urban areas.

This paper first develops a structural micro-founded model of aggregate net migration flow to study how migrants choose between multiple locations using multiple criteria. Migration should reduce observed inequality in the criteria. Apart from Bazzi (2012) who develops a micro-founded model of aggregate migration flows (but with a single destination and reason for migrating) to study the barriers to international migration flows, existing theoretical frameworks either cannot handle multiple criteria and locations or lack micro foundation. The model predicts that migration flows will be out of all but the top two ranked regions, most moves will be moving into the top ranked location, but low utility individuals in the best location will move to the second ranked location. The empirical work, which uses 1990-1999 Guangdong annual data and applies this structural model with generalized least squares and weighted least squares, confirms our prediction and finds a high degree of common marginal effects of the criteria among 18 locations but also finds increasing regional inequalities.

Migration of college students in India has been a relatively neglected area of research. Most of the migration studies have tended to focus on permanent migration. In our country, studies on migration have been confined hugely on migrant laborers, followed by returned migration, refugees and other displaced people, but comprehensive studies on migrant college students, especially in the northeast of India, have been few and far between. In this connection, an attempt has been made to study migration of college students by examining their past, present and future migration. Interstate migration of college students in North east takes place on account of plethora of reasons. Unlike mainland India, where interstate migration college students primarily take place because of lack of educational infrastructure, besides this reason, migration of college students to Shillong also occur because of spiralling violence in many adjoining states which have been ravaged by decades of insurgency and political turmoil. Moreover, proximity of Shillong to many neighboring states and its reputation as an educational hub in the region also attracts college migrants. The city also offers educational facilities at a relatively cheaper price and it is also a preferred destination for students whose ultimate goal is to migrate to bigger cities in India

This paper will identify the urbanization pattern in Indonesia by employing simple statistical methods to the readily available data of the 2000 and 2010 Indonesia Population Censuses, including percentage and rate of urban population growth. Urban localities (Desa Urban) are still largely concentrated on the island of Java, which may reflect the urban development disparity between Java and the outer islands, despite the fact that some outer island provinces have already experienced a high increase in the growth of urban localities and urban population. The peripheral of large cities experienced much more rapid annual population growth than the core of cities. Although urban population is still greatly concentrated in Java, there have been significant increase in the proportion of urban population in some provinces outside over the period 2000-2010. Nonetheless, small and and intermediate cities outside Java play a more important role as centers of socioeconomic activities compared to those in Java. In general, the recent pattern of Indonesia's urbanization reflects a continuity from the situation in 1990 and 2000, but at present some regions outside Java have began to undergo rapid increase in the urbanization level and urban population growth.

By the year 2030, 590 million Indians will become urban residents, a figure twice the size of the United States population today. Indian demographers have expressed concern that urbanization process has become concentrated in larger cities. However, preliminary reports from Census 2011 not only point to increased rural-urban migration, but also a shift in rural-urban migration to smaller cities. This paper seeks to understand how rural-urban migrants are faring as urban residents. The analysis stratifies Indian cities in two categories—those with a population of one million or more versus other smaller cities. The findings demonstrate that rural-urban migrants are better-off in smaller sized cities as compared to the million plus cities, indicating that city size is associated with migrants' ability to succeed as urban residents. The paper concludes by discussing possible explanations for this finding and its implications for India's urban future.

In a current scenario in which 85% of the population resides in cities, have witnessed the increasing importance of studies focused on the diversity of population movements and regional dynamics. In this context, Magalhães and Rios-Neto (2004) state that the spatial distribution of intra-urban population is a demographic phenomenon dynamic little explored in Brazil. Faced with the need to study socio-spatial processes in the city of Rio de Janeiro at scales less extensive and, therefore, achieve a higher level of specificity, this study aims to articulate demography and urban studies to investigate how and where migrants living in the city. Going further, as migrants move within the city and what are the factors linked to displacement. A peripheral issue in this study is to understand how the migrant would be susceptible to the structure of spatial segregation, social vulnerability, as well as participate in the opportunities created territory. The intention is to study the residential mobility of immigrants as a means of social integration in the metropolis. What are the factors that affect the removal intramunicipal migrants in metropolitan Rio? The immigration status is an important factor for the occupation of space in certain areas of the city?

Chongqing is the economic center where in the upper of Yangtze River in China. It is the largest population, the lowest urbanization level, and the fastest area with urbanization process than the other three municipalities directly under the central government. The population of residents in Chongqing reached at 29.19 million in 2011, the rate of urbanization reached to 55.02%. The population interprovincial migration in urban-rural transfer has become important factors to affect the population trends .In this paper, we extracted the migration pattern, and urban-rural transfer pattern of age population based on The Sixth National Census data. Secondly we take a urban-rural scenario prediction analysis on Chongqing population in the next 40 years based on the international general population with the software PADIS-INT to predict according to the different fertility, migration level and transfer level. The results show that: the urbanization of Chongqing will get into the rapid development stage in the future, and the urbanization rate will reach to 70.69% in 2030 and 74.33% in 2050; with the industry in the western regions gathered, the population of residents of Chongqing will enter a rising period, and it will reach in a range (30200000,31000000) in 2015, and reach in a range (32500000,35000000) in 2030.

Since 2004, a new term “the shortage of migrant labor” has captivated the attention of newspaper reporters, factory owners, and policy makers in China. This puzzle seems to be hard to understand given the often reported large size of migrant population. In this paper, we examine this recent puzzle of “the shortage of migrant labor” in China’s Pearl River delta (PRD) region, which hosts largest number of factories in China. Relying on data from several sources (census and survey of migrant workers in PRD), we argue that the “shortage of migrant labor” can be attributed to three main factors: changing destination choices among interprovincial migrants, increased job transitions in the labor market, and a new trend of interprovincial return migration. Empirical evidence supports our argument. Policy implications are discussed.