Population dynamics and climate change

Rice production sustainability depends on two vital factors, namely nature phenomena (climate change) and demand shift (structural change). The research aims to identify impacts of climate change to rice production and farmers’ adaptation technology; to analyze factors affecting technology use and marketing means; and to analyze impact of climate change on farmers’ wealth. The research combines two research approaches . First stage, regional level research uses inductive approach (secondary data, interview, PRA) to generate hypotheses regarding change condition. Second stage, research in farmers level uses positive approach, testing hypotheses with probabilistic samples on specific sampling frame to develop farmer decision model in selecting marketing means and technological adaptation.
This research concludes several points. First, generally farmers were not accurately recognize climate change. However, farmers’ awareness towards climate change has increased in the last ten years. Secondly, some factors influence the use of adaptation technology by farmers. Hindering factors in using technology are lack of capital, followed by lack of information and knowledge towards climatic issues. Thirdly, relatively, farmer income has been increasing in the last ten years, due to the use of modern cultivation techniques.

The onset of climate change is evident from changing weather patterns and prolonged droughts and floods destabilizing the livelihoods of people in many countries. Population dynamics are linked with the effects of climate change, but these linkages are not static. Changing demographic patterns affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and their ability adapt to it. To develop effective adaptation policies, one must understand the social and spatial differentials of population vulnerability to climate change. Assessing social vulnerability and equity in the context of climate change is a starting point to identify the needs for climate change adaptation and improve upon it. Indonesia and Malawi are two countries most likely to suffer adverse impacts of climate change because of their vulnerable social and natural systems, multiple interacting stresses and low adaptive capacity. This paper aims to assess the vulnerability to climate change in Indonesia and Malawi through the social vulnerability index approach and show how population growth, composition, ageing and urbanization shape social vulnerability to climate change. The results of the study would also help other developing countries with similar geographic and socio-economic conditions to prepare appropriate strategies for responding to climate change.

Context: Bangladesh is divided into seven distinct climatic zones. The effect of climate on mortality can be different in different zones. This study aims to assess the weather-mortality relationships in two climatic zones.
Methods: Health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) maintained by icddr,b in Matlab and Abhoynagar in two climatic zones provided daily counts of death and population during 1983-2009. Weather data on daily temperature and rainfall and cyclones for the same period were obtained from nearby weather stations of the Bangladesh Metrological Department. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions, was used allowing for over dispersion and lagged effects of weather on mortality, controlling for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software.
Findings and conclusions: Both temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns, explaining a significant part of mortality in both sites. Abhoynagar with more extreme in temperature exhibited stronger cold temperature-mortality relationship than Matlab. Abhoynagar with less rainfall exhibited the rainfall-mortality association, which was not the case with Matlab. The weather-mortality relationships by age, sex and broad cause were also examined to identify vulnerable groups and areas.

Abstract

The south Asia region - Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri-Lanka-possesses an extra ordinary diversity of landforms and climatic regimes. Deepening nature of poverty and its impact on the process of environmental degradation is one of the major concerns in this area. In this context, the first part of this paper deals with the state of south Asian economy and environment and the second part examines the linkage between population dynamics and related environmental changes and their implications for regional economic relationship. Results suggested that the principal causes of environmental degradation in the sub continent are: demographic pressure, which has worsened the man-land ratio causing severe strain on the ecological support base and developmental activities. Also, a poor health profile and the low level of human resource development in all the countries with the exception of Sri Lanka will impose severe constraints.

Key words: south Asia, population, health, environment

This study focuses on urban residents’ migration experience in the last 5 years (2007-11) and migration intentions in the next 2 years (2012-13) and their predictors in two cities – Shanghai and Nanjing – of the Yangtze River deltaic region, China. A combination of stratified sampling and simple random sampling methods and structured questionnaire surveys were used to collect primary data at the household level. Probit regression analysis methods were used to explore the factors that influence households’ past migration behaviours and future migration intentions. Specifically, possible impacts of climate/environmental change on past and future migration are measured in two ways: severity of climatic and other environmental events; and specific domains of the effects of climate/environmental change. The study demonstrates climatic/environmental factors play a significant role in influencing human mobility. The impact of climate change on migration is mediated by influencing household’s housing situation, daily expenditure, and general health status. Both past migration and intended future migration are also mediated by the age of the household head, housing types, accessibility to medical services, and target destinations of migration.

Given growing evidence in population studies that education is a key driver in providing positive social and demographic outcomes, this paper further argues that education can act as a protective factor for natural hazards and climate risks. Using the Indian Ocean Earthquakes on 11 April 2012 as a case study, this paper analyses how households living along Thailand’s Andaman coast reacted to tsunami warnings and how this disaster preparedness varies by education both at the individual- and community-level. Based on multilevel analysis of the survey carried out on April-May 2012 on 557 individuals living in tsunami high-risk areas, we find that education – measured at individual-, household- and village-levels – has positive significant relationships with disaster preparedness controlling for relevant demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the individuals, households and villages. There is significant village variation in the likelihood of adopting preparation measures which can be partially explained by differences in educational distribution between villages.

Yaoundé as the others main cities of Africa faced a rapid urbanization during recent decades. And to respond to this increasing urban population needs, many activities and practices have been developed with negatives impacts on the environment such as the accentuation of climate change. Hence, according to the IPCC, Equatorial Africa could warm by 1.4 ° C by 2050 and rapid urbanization will be one of the main responsible. This article aims to contribute to the knowledge on how the growth of cities in less developed countries affects the global warming, with a focus on the perceptions and attitudes of citizens of Yaoundé toward the phenomenon. The study we will base on thorough individual interviews conducted with people who have been living in Yaoundé for at least two decades. The exploitation of data will consists of a preliminary analysis and a thematic content analysis associated with the construction of typology

The objective of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on number of ED visits including specified cause of visit such as heat related disease; heatstroke, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease in major cities, Korea.
We conducted a case-crossover study to determine whether the association between temperature and ED visits for heat related disease varies by season or month among 7 major cities’; Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Ulsan using a National Emergency Department Information System. The associations between temperature and ED visits for the all visits have positive significance when the overall association is examined at each city ; Seoul (OR=1.011, 95%CI:1.010,1.011), Busan (OR=1.010, 95%CI:1.008,1.011), Daegu (OR=1.006, 95%CI:1.005,1.007), Incheon (OR=1.014, 95%CI:1.013-1.015), Gwangju (OR=1.015, 95%CI:1.013,1.016), Daejeon (OR=1.010, 95%CI:1.009,1.011), and Ulsan (OR=1.010, 95%CI:1.009,1.012). However, seasonal, monthly, and cause of ED visits’ variations were detected among the cities. The association of Heatstroke ED visits and temperature was significant in several cities but there exists monthly variation among cities.In the future, preventive measures must be taken to limit the health consequences of uncertain temperature increase such as heat waves to come.

The demography of disasters is an emerging, under-researched field of potentially great significance for public policy specialists and disaster risk reduction managers, especially in the context of the increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters arising from climate change. There is growing awareness of the need to bring together the demography, disasters and development research communities to investigate issues at the intersection of these three important contextual frameworks. (UNDP, 2009) Asia, which has the largest part of the world’s population, experiences the majority of natural disasters, has the highest proportion of mortalities, and suffers the most extensive losses in terms of both material assets and human resources(IFRCRCS, 2009). This is a function of both socially constructed vulnerability (Cutter, 1996) and risk governance. To enhance our understanding of the cross-sectoral nature of the demography of disasters, this paper examines issues impacting on family formation, household composition and health following recent disasters in Iran, Taiwan and Myanmar. It takes into account the cross-cultural contexts, and differences in governance. Initial findings suggest that while women and children suffer the highest mortalities during disasters, re-marriage patterns are not linear.

The concept of environmentally-induced migration is closely connected to its theoretical origin of ‘forced migration.' While the legal definition of environmental migrants remains widely debated, classifying environmentally-induced migration has become a necessary first step to the understanding of needs and magnitude of such migrants. This study aims to formulate a new typology of environmentally-induced migration based on different time duration and settlement characteristics. Environmentally motivated migrants category contains those who exercise their relatively maximum and genuine freedom of choice to move, primarily due to the potential environment changes. The second category of environmental displacees includes those who are forced to leave, because people’s livelihoods and welfare have been at risk as a result of adverse environmental processes. With respect to the migration urgency, two subcategories can be further distinguished as slow-onset environmental displacees and rapid-onset environmental displacees. Lastly, those who are intentionally resettled due to a planned land-use change are referred to as development displacees. The cause is anthropogenic in nature. International sporting events and wildlife conservation projects may also result in development displacees.