Population dynamics and climate change

Mexico is particularly vulnerable to the impact of natural phenomenons and, consequently, to negative effects on household’s well-being. The impact of a phenomenon of considerable dimensions alters the population’s environmental, social, and economic conditions, which are translated in the loss of livelihood, personal assets, and even human lives. In this research project we ask ourselves about the households affected by natural disaster’s sociodemographic profile in Mexico and if they adjust their labor participation as a strategy that faces the damages caused by natural phenomenon. Using longitudinal data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, a panel was built in order to analyze how did the Mexican’s household’s labor participation changed between 2002 and 2005 upon the occurrence of natural disasters in 2003 and 2004. The article suggests that the household’s victims of a catastrophic event had certain sociodemographic features that made them especially vulnerable. The results of a multinomial logistic regression model show that natural disasters have differentiated effects upon the labor participation that depend on the magnitude of the disaster and the characteristics of the household.

This study is aimed first to identify whose livelihood is vulnerable to what specific causes of salinity intrusion and second to identify the underlying factors that govern the adaptation preference of the coastal population. The study was conducted in a coastal district of south-west region of Bangladesh which is under tidal influence of the Bay of Bengal, flanked by the world famous mangrove forest- Sundarbans and prone to multiple hydro-meteorological disasters including SLR induced events. Findings reveal that people’s livelihood insecurity are related to i) severe loss of crop agriculture, ii) shrinking income from other non-crop agriculture, iii) severe damage of fresh-water fishing, iv) severe damage of settlements and housing, v) severe damage of other infrastructure. Therefore, salinity induced by both natural events and human intervention (i.e. on purposes ingression for saline water shrimp culture) affects the livelihood security of significant proportion of the population in the study area. The policy implication of the finding is, this would help designing separate sets of intervention for coastal population who have different structural characteristics and are susceptible to unique sets of dynamic impacts of salinity. Such measure would encounter the impacts of salinity on coastal landscape and livelihood.

This paper has threefold objective. Firstly, it presents existing conceptual unclarities about "climate refugees". Secondly, it discusses how such unclearities have downplayed the rights of the climate victims. Finally, it proposes a new architecture of a global governance of “climate refugee”. Environmentally induced migration is as old as human civilization, yet the issue of “climate refugees” got global attention only after Professor Myers’ (Oxford University) estimation of 200 million climate migrants by 2050. In this regards developed countries gave very cursory focus due to fundamental flaws in conceptualization of the term “climate refugees” as this term does not have any politico-legal ground in UN Convention on “refugees”. Only New Zealand accepts 75 Tuvaluans each year through Pacific Access Category. Sweden considers environmental migrants as a special category. Switzerland, Canada, and Malaysia temporarily suspended involuntary returns of failed asylum seekers to affected areas of 2004’s Tsunami. However, none of these countries make explicit reference to “climate refugees” for such liberal treatment. Finally, this paper concluded that there is no “home” for “climate refugees”, either literally or figuratively. Therefore, this paper has drawn a new architecture of the global governance of “climate refugees”.

Studies in industrialized countries have documented adverse effects of climate and weather variability on population health. Empirical studies from Africa are few. In response to this concern, an INDEPTH Network study was initiated in collaboration with UNESCO as a coordinated effort to assess the relation Climate Change, Migration and Mortality (CLIMIMO). The ultimate aim is improving current understanding of extreme weather effects, time trends and seasonality and thereby, populations vulnerability to climate change using longitudinal data. A dozen INDEPTH member HDSSs participated at a capacity strengthening workshop in Burkina Faso 2011 that provided the instruments for researchers to analyse longitudinal data and more recently in a data analysis workshop in Ghana 2012. This paper presents data from four African countries Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania. Weather data from global observational database, complemented by HDSS-specific meteorological data where available was used. Analyses use time series Poisson regression models, regressing weather condition on the counts of mortality by subgroups of the population. Results show that weather variability is strongly related to mortality with children and older adults being the most sensitive to climate and weather variability-related mortality.

In this paper, there is the introduction of the concept “population activity intensity” which is further illustrated with the examples of energy consumption and carbon emissions to evaluate how much exploration population activities do to the natural resources and how much influence population activities have on the nature and human survival. Population activity intensity refers to that in a certain time period and areas, the extent of natural resources consumption and waste discharge generated by all kinds of human activities .
The carbon emissions produced by the energy consumption of population economic activities is regarded as a variable to calculate population activity intensity. With the application of calculation model recommended by IPCC, combining the statistics of population and areas of land of each province in China, there is the calculation of total carbon emissions, carbon emissions per person and unit area, provincial carbon emissions per person and unit area in China from 1995 to 2010. Moreover, there is a systematic analysis of the items mentioned above and such variable as population and economy to explore the regional differences of population activity intensity.

China’s population structure is undergoing profound changes. Based on the simulation calculation in this paper, the average family scales decrease from 3.10 people in 2010 to 2.44 people in 2030. The number of people in 20-40yrs falls from 473 million to 356 million. And the urbanization rate will be decreasing to 64.1% from 49.95% in 2010. The changes in population structure play a significant role in building demand and relevant energy consumption.
In 2010, the average residential area per person is 32.8 m2, which is close to the level of developed countries in Europe and Japan. If there is a balanced house ownership, present total residences can satisfy residents’ demand. The current problem is there is great difference in house ownership and there is frequent demolishment to increase GDP. If it would go in the current way, by 2030, the average residential area per person would exceed 55 square meters, which is over demand. What is more, the energy consumption of China’s building life cycle will exceed the total social energy consumption in 2010, leading to serious energy waste and environmental pollution.

Abstract

Environmentally induced population displacement is a hot topic. Concerns about the consequences of climate change for human populations, the recognition that migration may be one of the most viable adaptation strategies, and the view that such population movements would present security challenges fuel this increasing interest. The process of climate change – and the natural disasters and conflicts it engenders – will add to the scale and complexity of human mobility and displacement. While climate change has been the subject of intense debate and speculation within the scientific community, insufficient attention has been given to its humanitarian consequences. Just as the causes of climate change are being analyzed and their likely effects assessed, it is equally imperative to anticipate displacement scenarios and improve the quality and readiness of our response. This paper examines the population displacement scenario consequent upon climate change. It outlines the hot spots of displacement and impact of climate change on migration. Further impact of drought, storms and floods on human displacement has been pointed out. This paper concludes with some policy measures to prevent the negative impact of climate change on human displacement.

Key words: Population Displacement, Climate change, Migration.

Although sub-Saharan Africa does not contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, significant adverse impacts of climate change are anticipated in this region. Countries in West Africa, which are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, are projected to experience more frequent and intense droughts, altered rainfall patterns and increases in temperature through the end of this century. The changes in climate pattern are likely to affect crop yields, thereby placing pressure on scarce resources in a region that is characterized by limited social, political, technical and financial resources. This paper assessed the preferred adaptation strategies during floods and droughts of males and females in three different occupations (farming, fishing and charcoal production). Findings are based upon an analysis of focus group discussions and ranking of preferred adaptation options in three communities in the Afram Plains of Ghana. Assessments of this nature should aid in the selection and implementation of adaptation strategies for communities and households, which is the level at which climate change adaptation is likely to occur in West Africa.

Maintaining health security to the fast rising population under a changing climate has become a major challenge in India. Extremes in hydrometeorological conditions are serious challenges to public health. Floods, landslides, cyclones, and heat and cold waves kill thousands every year. Climate change affects physical capacity of the working class. India loses large number of Daily Adjusted Life Years. Falling availability and degradation of water resources leads to serious health issues. Malaria is likely to affect one-fifth of the country in 3 decades. Water-borne and air-borne diseases spread into new areas. Hiking prices make nutritious food and safe water inaccessible to a large population. Climate extremes result in psychiatric illness in poor people depending on climate sensitive sectors for livelihood. Suicide of hundreds of farmers and the post-traumatic stress disorder syndromes developed after the cyclone and heat wave are examples. Migration of population, both internal displacement and inflow from surrounding countries cause spreading of diseases. A comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate changes on public health and of the challenges in population control in India is made in this paper. Current adaptation strategies and policies have been critically reviewed to provide guidelines for a better policy.

Of current concerns are the significant impacts of human influence on climate variability and change. Even though societies have been adapting to climate variability and change, evidence seem to suggest that in rural Ghana, adaptation capacity is quite low. The level of adaptation to climate change as identified in the Asante Akim South District is a function of individual household’s empowered capacity to obviate the direct impacts of climate variability and change. A survey of 120 heads of households simple randomly-sampled, were targeted with structured questionnaires and interview guides from three communities in the Asante-Akim South in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The study revealed inter alia, that livelihoods are invariably tied to subsistent agriculture. These impacts are expressed in terms of low crop yields, low income and households’ savings from agriculture, environmental resources depletion. Farmers, as matters of urgency, adopted some coping methods and eventually adaptive strategies to sustain their livelihoods. Livelihood strategies should incorporate climate variability management measures; in view of the fact that livelihood support resources are prone to changing climatic consequences.