Population dynamics and climate change

One of the greatest environmental issues in Nigeria is the problem of waste generation and disposal. Nigeria’s major urban centers are today fighting to clear mounting heaps of solid waste from their environments which has become a major concern for various stakeholders in Nigeria. The tremendous population increase in most urban cities in Nigeria has contributed immensely to the problem of waste generation and management. Therefore, with this rationale, this study is set to explore the links between population and the environment especially in the area of waste generation daily as a result of increasing population in urban centres. In this view, the study suggests the need for waste reduction in Nigeria which is a solution that warrants investigation, within the realm of household solid waste management since the individual is the primary waste generator and primary user of the waste management systems.
Keywords: Population, environment, waste generation, Waste reduction, Urban centres

Egypt is one of the potential vulnerable countries to the effect of climate warming. The negative consequences of climate warming are Sea Level Rise (SLR), water scarcity, agriculture and food insufficiency, and pressures on population dynamics and dimensions. The most probably impacts of climate change are: migration of part of the Egyptian population, increase in population density, adverse impacts on human health (crowding and tropical diseases), exaggerated the problem of water supply and demand, food insufficiency, and contamination of fresh ground water. Climate change will affect all economic activities in Egypt with different levels. Agriculture sector will be the mostly severely impacted flowed by the industrial sector and tourism sector. Fisheries and tourism are likely to be the most impacted jobs by climate change. International conflicts could arise over rights to shared Nile River as a result of climate change, in addition to the population growth and development pressures. Concrete sea walls to protect the beaches along the Mediterranean, reducing the population growth to the replacement level, and producing 20% of total energy from renewable and clean sources are the most important strategies to confront the problem.

A system's vulnerability to climate change is determined by exposure, physical configuration and sensitivity, their ability and opportunity to adapt. The research goal is identify which variables determine population vulnerability to climate change in 2058 municipalities in Mexico. The hypothesis is that population vulnerability to climate change depends on sociodemographic characteristics (poverty --income--, education, health, demographic factors, dependence on agriculture); housing characteristics; natural resources and type of government in the region. It uses factor analysis, this statistical tool serves to reduce data grouped by common factors to explain factors (in this case dimensions). It is a method that helps to identify factors that explain the pattern of correlations within a set of observed variables. Analysis is used to reduce data regularly to identify a small number of factors that explain most of the observed variance.
The vulnerability of municipalities is varied for the five components. However, the center of the country presents more vulnerable by their social needs and the high concentration of population. This review identifies focus areas that must be addressed to avoid risks to the population living in the most vulnerable regions to climate events.

Islands are examined due to their increased vulnerability to climate change related hazards like flooding, sea-level rise, storms, cyclones etc. Out of the several projected impacts of climate change in India, coastal zones are apprehended to suffer most devastating effects. India has been identified as one amongst 27 countries which are most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming related accelerated sea level rise (UNEP, 1989). Under article 6 of New Delhi Work Programme (2007), a special effort to foster psychological/behavioral change has been stressed through public awareness. In view of this, a psychological assessment of Indian islanders’ perceptions, stressors and resilience to climate change was conducted in Tsunami affected Andaman islands of India (N=100 adult respondents) using Islanders’ Perception to Climate Change Inventory (IPCCI) classified into subsections like Climate Change Perceptions, Islanders’ Distress, Coping/Adaptation and Psychological Resilience. Results were discussed in line with human-climate interface/ psychological variables in order to suggest the tradeoffs between individual, community and institutional responses to natural disasters so that resilience and subjective well being can be further promoted in islanders to overcome the anticipated distress from Tsunami like environmental events.

Malaria, one of the major health concerns in Ghana is predicted to be impacted by climate change. This study examined the influence of rainfall and household characteristics on malaria incidence as analysed through the lenses of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework on climate change and health.
We used data from two sources: (i) malaria and rainfall data from the Centre for Health and Information Management and Ghana Meteorological Agency and (ii) survey of 434 representative sample households in Ga-Mashie, Accra. The data were analysed at the macro and micro levels using descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariate techniques.
The macro level analysis shows a significant relationship between number of rain days and incidence of malaria. It was found that flooding is positve related with incidence of malaria at the micro level. Again, community of residence and level of education were significantly related with malaria incidence at the micro level.
The findings have implication for other climate sensitive diseases in Ghana and how they relate with rainfall and other climatic variables, which future studies should seek to address. Public health programmes must be intensified, focusing on all year round prevention of malaria.

Key words: Climate, Climate Variability, Flooding, Ghana

This is a study of the relationship between weather patterns, or rainfall, and migration in rural agricultural areas. The already significant body of research on this topic shows that empirical patterns differ from the conventional assumptions and there is less than expected migration following large and detrimental weather changes. However, more theoretical and empirical detail is needed to understand this process and why the results differ from basic theoretical assumptions. In this study, we use detailed data from rural Nepal to test the effects of weather on short- and long-term migration and we investigate differences between weather in the previous one through six years. Results show that low rainfall increases short-term migration, but decreases long-term migration. Further, we find no evidence that rainfall in the past year influences migration, but that rainfall in the more distant past has strong and significant effects. This suggests that migration might be a strategy to decrease risk in the case when agricultural livelihoods become unsustainable in the long-term.

Knowledge of the carbon emissions elasticities of income and population is important both for climate policy/negotiations and for generating projections of carbon emissions. However, previous estimations of these elasticities using the well-known STIRPAT framework have produced such wide-ranging estimates that they add little insight. Among the possible reasons for such disparate results are: (i) the different datasets analyzed and, in particular, whether elasticities were allowed to differ according to development level; (ii) the additional independent variables besides population and income that were considered; and (iii) the various methods used—specifically, the data’s time dimension and whether/how the stationarity properties of the data were considered/addressed. This paper estimates a model that addresses the above issues, as well as the issue of cross-section dependence. Among the findings are that the carbon emissions elasticity of income is highly robust; that elasticity for OECD countries is less than one, and likely less than the non-OECD country income elasticity (which is not significantly different from one). By contrast, the carbon emissions elasticity of population is not robust; however, that elasticity is likely not statistically significantly different from one (for either OECD or non-OECD countries).

Developing countries face ever increasing challenges in the area of food security. Among these challenges climate change is arguably one of the most serious and wide-spread threats, since it affects all regions of the world, albeit not equally. There is growing evidence that climate change is decreasing the productivity of many crops around the world, thus increasing the risk of food shortages in developing countries where agricultural systems are low-tech and malnutrition is common. While population growth is often mentioned as a contributing factor to food changing the rate of population growth is rarely seen as a climate change adaptation policy alternative.
We developed a computer simulation model to help clarify the dynamic relationships between climate change, food security and population growth. The model links a population projection, a computable general equilibrium economic model that takes account of the effects of climate change on agriculture, and a food requirements model of the population that uses FAO formulas.
We piloted the model in Ethiopia. The model shows that, as expected, climate change will exacerbate the food security gap in Ethiopia but that lowering population growth will reduce the gap to a level that is close to that without climate change.

The effects of climate change are being felt disproportionately in the world’s poorest countries and among those groups of people least able to cope. The Philippines, a storm-lashed nation, is one country having high climate change vulnerability and low resilience. A number of researches have suggested investments on adaptation which place strong emphasis on reducing vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on climate risk vulnerability in the Philippines, this study examines the effect of one particular type of government intervention: increasing the level of education. In this study, the effect of education on vulnerability to climate change is examined using official Philippine statistics from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Labor Force Survey (LFS), National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). Using a panel data model assuming fixed cross-sectional effects, the study establishes that at the community level, the proportion of household heads with at least secondary education is a significant factor that reduces climate risk vulnerability (measured by a transformation of number of deaths), controlling for other factors such as number of disasters, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), population growth and population density.

The research was conducted in two regencies in Indonesia: Indramayu, West Java and Kupang Timur, Nusa Tenggara Timur. It is intended to give a description of how the Climate Field School for Climate Change was set-up from the beginning to the way it was finally running. Factoring in the choice of the location, the attendees, the syllabus, and other important matters. This paper also hopes to be able to tie the poverty issue with the climate change. The research found that the Climate Field School for Climate Change not only gave additional knowledge to farmers, but it also helped bring back the farmers recollections about very relevant local knowledge that they may have forgotten, such as the ability to predict the weather patterns that the next season brings. This had given farmers confidence and knowledge that had translated into high productivity in recent years. Unfortunately this year, the season pattern was extremely different from the past. The farmers had to suffer incredible losses due to crop failure. This was not only impacted materially, but also brought to question the credibility of the knowledge the farmers gained from the Climate Field School.