Educational Change and its Impact on Fertility and Demographic Dividend of Future India

Abstract
This study attempts to explore the effect of educational attainment on the age-sex composition of India’s population; and thus to understand the potential of its emerging demographic dividend till 2051, through multi-state population projection by levels of education. We have followed the framework of IIASA-Oxford’s new rounds of population projections by levels of educational attainment (to be released in the fall of 2012) regarding survival rates and educational attainment. The analysis is based on two scenarios where education profile in India will remain constant as of 2006; and will improve over the time. Further, we have assumed a fertility trend till 2049 based on the recent experience (Sample Registration System, 2000-2010). The projection is based on the population census of India (2001). Recent trend shows that in India, fertility rates across educational groups will not converge in near future. If India continues with current education profile, its TFR will reach 2.26 in 2021 and likely to remain constant, whereas given the assumed educational attainment they will reach the below-replacement-level TFR in 2041, with a slow but continuous decline in fertility rates. The demographic dividend is found to be highly dependent upon the level of education, which increases the productivity.
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
50 068
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Does Educational Attendance Explain Youth Inactivity and Labour Market Vulnerability in India?

Abstract
Youth constitutes about one fifth of total population of India. Among many challenges they face, unemployment and education are the most critical. This paper reviews the age structure over the decade and examines the growth of young age groups and also analyzes the changing pattern of education and how does it affect the entry in on labour market entry. National Sample Survey data during last one decade i.e. 1993/94 to 2004/05 has been used for the study. The age structure of the population indicates larger addition to the labour force in coming decades. Over the years, youth inactivity in terms of economic activity has increased, though there have been large differentials at state level in India. Among major activity taken by young population instead of being economically active is education. On the other hand, percentage of youth inactivity is approximately 5 percent during this period while share of youth neither in education nor in employment (NEET) in total youth population has increased by 8 percent. However, female inactivity comes out as the major issues as they are neither in education nor in employment and largely go to out of labour force and engaged in household duties. Education system of country is not capable to supply as per the demand of tertiary sector which results into higher unemployment.
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
49 784
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Analysis of Chinese Population Policies’ Effect and Future

Abstract
The core issue of Population Resources and Environmental Economics is how to allocate resources for material production and population production to meet the people‘s livelihood and reproduction needs, and as much as possible to protect the environment, promote people-centered sustainable development. Chinese population policy bases on the creed that social development needs moderate population. Reproductive choice thus transformed to national implementation of the "control population , improve population quality". the current world fertility situation has undergone a fundamental change. From the World Fertility Report data we know that the level of fertility in developed countries has generally declined since the 1970s,this low fertility levels is unprecedented. China‘s total fertility rate is also below replacement level for many years and the demographic dividend will disappear soon. The current policy in the Eleventh Five-Year period sticks to “to stabilize the low fertility level”, and did not specify the standards to stabilize the low fertility level. Shanghai and some other
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
50 427
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Demographic Dividend and gender imbalance in Labor force participation rate in Pakistan: Multistate Population Projections by employment status

Abstract
The labor force participation rate (LFPR), particularly for women has the topic of great interest for labor economist since decades. LFPR in Pakistan responds to economic, social, cultural and demographic mechanisms. Virtually, in every society, male labor force participation rate is higher than female, primarily to accommodate women’s reproductive functions and family responsibilities. Pakistan experiences a demographic window of opportunities in present and near future. In order to maximize the socio-economic benefits of this dividend, female LFPR plays a vital role. However, Pakistan has one of the lowest LFPR for women in the world, more accurately, one of the lowest rates for urban women—about 22 percent in 2010. Furthermore, it was observed that female with no education has the higher participation rate in latest LFS 2010. In this study, we assess the pattern of female LFPR and its determinant in Pakistan. We used several data sets such as, DHS, LFS and PSLM. This study is categories into two parts. The first part provides comprehensive overview of the LFPR by gender, place of residence and by educational level in Pakistan during last three decades and analyses the proximate determinant of LFPR. In the second step, this paper applies state-of-art multistate population projections methodology by level of employment in Pakis
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
50 153
Type of Submissions
Regular session only
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Youth bulge and stress in labor market entry: linking policy efforts and entry behaviors of prospective entrants in Cameroon

Abstract
The relationship between population change and economic growth logically creates a key link between youth budge and labor market entry distress, resulting from labor supply-demand mismatch, necessitating diverse policy interventions. The paper seeks to understand the phenomenon of Cameroon youth bulge as a stress factor in labor market entry, and the link between policy efforts and labor market entry behaviors of prospective young entrants. A sample of 739 young graduates (51.8% males) was drawn from higher education policy intervention programme for information gathering. An instrument was validated to measure education policy efforts, self-efficacy, optimism, attitudes and intention levels, and qualitative and quantitative approaches employed in data analysis. Significant positive associations were observed among core variables; validating the proposed model of youth bulge and labor market outcome behaviors, and confirming the facilitating role of policy in entry behaviors. The predictive powers of behavior states on venture intent of youth cohort were confirmed and a gendered analysis of policy impact showed significant difference in favor of males except for optimism. Although policy intervention revealed hopeful results, qualitative analysis showed conspicuous gaps in policy formulation and implementation.
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Event ID
17
Paper presenter
51 474
Type of Submissions
Regular session only
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

Returns to Education and Earnings Inequality in Segmented Labour Market: A Study of Migrants and Locals in Large Chinese Cities

Abstract
Increasing earnings inequality has been a feature of China’s segmented urban labour markets in recent decades. This paper examines the effects of household registration or hukou-induced segmentation on earnings inequality and returns to education in urban China, using data from a survey conducted in four large Chinese cities in 2008, with a particular focus on three groups (urban locals, urban-to-urban migrants, and rural-to-urban migrants). The paper estimates returns to education in urban China by estimating separate Mincer equations for the three groups. A quantile regression is also carried out to examine the effects of covariates on earnings at different points of the conditional distribution. In addition, a decomposition of earnings differentials between groups is carried out to further identify the effect of education on earnings inequality using the Blinder-Oaxaca approach. The results indicate that factors such as downward mobility, fewer years of schooling and jobs in informal sectors have negative effects on rural migrants (but less so on urban migrants). It also finds that education is an important source of inequality. Inequality in educational attainments plays an important role in determining returns in urban labour market.
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
48 056
Type of Submissions
Regular session only
Language of Presentation
English
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

High Achievement in Education but Low Participation of Labour Force: a case of Females in Sri Lanka

Abstract
During the past four decades, level of education of females in Sri Lanka has enhanced rapidly. However, along with the increase of female education throughout the country, their participation of labour has not increased. The paper is to explore the reasons behind the low female labour force participation despite having high achievements in the education. Using secondary data and key informant interviews on Sri Lankan labour market, study found, issues on the education system, high female unemployment, narrowed choices of training programmes available to females, labour market structure, multiple roles of females and availability of child caring facilities as main factors that lower the female participation in the labour force in Sri Lanka. Migration of females to Middle-Eastern countries for employment might also have created a shortage of potential females to the local labour markets.
The age structure transition has produced a demographic dividend, covering the period 1991-2017, which is conducive for an economic takeoff of the country. In order to capitalize this dividend, female participation of productive employment is a crucial parameter. Since this is a rare opportunity, the policy makers should develop appropriate policies to enhance the participation of females in the Sri Lankan labour markets immediately
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
49 033
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
24
Status in Programme
1

Pattern of female work force participation in India

Abstract
In India, according to National Sample Survey 2009-10, the female work force participation rate is decreasing in India with a wide regional variation unlike other countries. This calls for an investigation so as to know how and why the rate is declining. We undertake the study to have an insight into the changing trend in female workforce participation within the period of 2004 to 2010. The data source for this study is ‘Employment and Unemployment Situation in India’ of the two rounds of National sample Survey organization (NSSO) namely; the 61th (schedule 10) and the 66 th (schedule 10) rounds conducted during 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. The dataset of the two time periods have been pooled and logistic regression analysis has been done so as to know the predictors of the low female workforce participation. The study finds that there has been decrease in female workforce participation (FWP) from 29 percent to 23 percent from 2004 to 2010 whereas the male workforce participation is same over the two periods i.e. 55 percent. The rural, younger, illiterate, poorest, never married, scheduled tribe and Muslim women have higher levels of unemployment.Number of self employed women is declining whereas casual work among women is increasing over the years.
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
55 049
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
First Choice History
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
31
Status in Programme
1

Employment Probabilities and Salary Expectations of Engineering Graduates in India: An Empirical Study

Abstract
The paper aims to analyze the employment and related aspects of engineering graduates in Delhi, India using the data collected from the final year engineering graduates studying in different types of institutions (central government/state government/private) and courses of study (traditional/IT related courses) in Delhi. The survey covers 1178 students in the academic year 2009-10. Different issues/questions dealt in the paper include: first, what are the factors determining the employment probabilities of engineering graduates? Second, does the offered earning of engineering graduates vary according to their socio-economic, academic and current educational background? Third, the crude rates of return to engineering education is estimated to evaluate labour market value of taking four years of engineering education in the instead of entering into the job market after completing senior secondary level of education. A few major policy implications are also drawn from the several results presented. Econometric tools used in the analysis include logistic regression (in case of the dependent variable is binary) and OLS technique (where the dependent variable is continuous). The explanatory variables included in the analyses are broadly categorised as individual characteristics, household factors and students' academic background.
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
55 984
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Initial Second Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1

CHARACTERISTICS OF RURAL SCHEDULED AND NON- SCHEDULED WORKERS IN INDIA : A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

Abstract
This study shows the characteristics of scheduled and non-sThe study has mainly two objectives: - (i) To examine the changes that occurred in general structure of rural work force across different social groups and gender during the neo liberal economic period. (ii) To assess the qualitative changes in rural work force in various economic activity and the factors involved therein. The result shows that the highest increase of rural work force in self employed category especially in non-scheduled workers as compared to scheduled workers. In regular salaried workers there has been declined in all India level and in all social groups. The share of casual workers increased in non-farm sectors and scheduled workers increased in casual category. The non-scheduled workers have declined in agriculture and it is followed by scheduled workers. The non-scheduled workers have moderate increase in trade, manufacturing and other services as compared to scheduled workers. There has been increase in share of manufacturing and construction for all social groups between the two time periods at in national level. Non-scheduled workers have higher share than scheduled workers in construction, trade and transport, storage and communication. It shows that in the new economic policy regime in situation of the scheduled workers have not improved.
confirm funding
Event ID
17
Paper presenter
53 980
Type of Submissions
Regular session presentation, if not selected I agree to present my paper as a poster
Language of Presentation
English
Initial First Choice
Weight in Programme
1 000
Status in Programme
1