Global migration trends and determinants

Although substantial research has been made in identifying and quantifying determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include these determinants in an explicit migration model. In Norway, gross immigration is currently 1.5 percent of total population, and immigration is the main driver of population change. Statistics Norway is projecting immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables included are income level, unemployment and population size in Norway and the sending countries, previous immigration from the sending countries to Norway, and dummies for policy changes or special events. Data from 1970-2011 are used to estimate the effect of the different variables for three country groups: Western countries, Eastern EU-countries and the rest of the world. Projections of exogenous variables are partly drawn from international sources and partly from national Norwegian forecasts. For the income variables, three different paths are specified leading to three different forecasts for immigration until 2100. These forecasts suggest high immigration at least for another decade. However, the alternatives indicate high uncertainty. Even if we condition on a specific path of explanatory variables, prediction intervals are wide.

The first question that inspired the development of this work was "what motivated the change in the migratory flow between Brazil and Spain among the XIX, XX and XXI?"
Brazil was the third destination chosen by the Spanish in volume of immigrants, behind only to Argentina and Cuba (Bassanezi, 1996), In a first moment motivated by coffee and then attracted by the industry.
Nowadays the brazilians occupy the 14th position among the countries that have most immigrants within Spain. The simple combination of these two phenomena suggests that there was a reversal of flows: in the past, the Spaniards were "repelled" from Spain because of wars and were attracted by working conditions in Brazil; nowadays, Brazilians are "expelled" also the country due to poor employment conditions and safety, among other factors, and depart for Spain, in search of better living conditions.
However, Patarra (2005) says that this reasoning is wrong. The entry and exit of people from Brazil never stopped; context, characteristics, and significance of the volume flows are totally different and can not be compared. For her, "the international migratory movements constitute the planetary territorial restructuring - which, in turn, is intrinsically related to restructuring economic-productive on a global scale." (Patarra, 2005, p.24)

This paper examines the repercussions of international migration on children’s time allocation in households at origin. We focus on children of age 7 to 12 and distinguish three activities: market work, French school attendance, and enrollment in Medersa (Arab/Islamic traditional school). In our analysis, we account for heterogeneities in migration constraints considering differences in migration destinations and the number of migrants within households. We instrument for migration using policy and governance facets in destination countries, precisely France, Spain, and Italy. Results show that – after controlling for endogeneity – migration has a positive and significant impact on enrollment in French curriculum school. However, once we account for the destination of the migrant, this positive and significant impact is only verified in households with migrants in Europe. We also note that when the number of migrants within a household increases, children of age 7 to 12 are less likely to attend French school and they are more likely to be involved in paid work activities. We draw evidence from the 2009 Senegalese household survey on migration and remittances (Enquête Ménage sur la Migration et les Transferts de Fonds).

We used a longitudinal analysis to assess the differences in health outcomes (physical, mental and self-rated health), among Foreign-Born (FB) from English Speaking Countries (ESC) and non-English Speaking Countries (NESC) relative to Native-Born (NB) Australian over a 10 year period. We used hybrid regression models for evaluation of these health outcomes in 5,795 NB and 1,665 are FB from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. After adjusting for all the time varying and time in-variant covariates, FB from NESC who had been living in Australia for more than 10 years were more likely to have poor physical health, mental health and self-rated health. We did not find any significant differences in the mental health of FB from ESC and NB Australiana throughout this 10 year period. However, FB from ESC maintained their physical health and self-rated health advantage over a longer period (more than 20 years).

Is foreign migration able to compensate the low fertility and to prevent the population decrease and the population ageing? It has been demonstrated that the annual number of immigrants needed to restrict the decline in the population size is relatively small while the number of immigrants preventing the population ageing had to be unrealistically high. The article shows, which extent of migration would be necessary to stabilize the size and the sex-and-age structure of the population of the Czech Republic in the sense of the convergence to the modified stationary population model which assumes decrease in the number of live births corresponding to the decreasing mortality. While in the case of increase in fertility the annual numbers of migrants necessary for the convergence are relatively small, in the case of stabilizing fertility at the present low level the numbers of migrants seem to be unrealistically high.

International migration from Sub-Saharan Africas (SSA) is increasing in number and stable at around 10% of the total global international migrants during the period from 1990 to 2010. When differentiated by language group, it is revealed that English-speaking SSA migrants are more prone to go outside of SSA and to Anglophone countries such as USA or UK, whereas French-speaking SSA migrants move mostly within SSA and those who go beyond the continent move basically to Francophone countries such as France. The domestic (internal) mobility in SSA does not show language-specific difference on the country level, but the provincial level analysis reveals that English-speaking capital areas are more mobile than French-speaking capital areas. There is indeed a cultural, linguistic push and pull relationship in terms of international migration and also one can assume that the strong pull from Anglophone developed countries had caused the high mobility in the English-speaking capital areas of SSA. This hypothesis suggests that the international migration is induced not only by economic pull but also on cultural bonds, and the global movement interacts with domestic mobility.

Abstract
The paper uses the Master File of the 2006 Census to investigate the earnings of the largest visible minority group, South Asians, in Canada. Unlike the previous research which invokes a homogenous South Asian identity, the focus is on the various South Asian ethnic groups. The findings show that Indian, Pakistani, Sri Lankan and Bangladeshi men and women do not share the same labour market experiences. Overall, after the control of socio-demographic, human capital and work related consideration, each of the South Asian ethnic groups has substantially reduced earnings penalty associated with their ethnic status in comparison to White counterparts, though the earnings gap remains significant.
In terms of gender, separate analysis reveals that relative to whites, South Asians women have shown better labour market outcomes than in the case of South Asian men. The differential impact of various factors on the earnings, however, signals that some women are confronted with a relatively more conservative environment which may impede their economic mobility. Nevertheless, a greater influence of human capital on the earnings of both men and women highlights the need in policy shift to better accommodate human capital of immigrants.
Ker word: Integration, South Asians, Ethnic status, Human capital

The feminization of migration has been a particularly marked phenomenon in Asia since the mid-1980s. However, the feminization of migration has not been very pronounced in South Korea, although its significance has grown more recently. At present approximately 44% of the total number of foreigners staying in South Korea and about 30% of migrant workers are women. From the 1990s till today the largest groupings of female migrants into Korea have been the Josonjok and marriage migrants. This paper reviews the phenomenon of the feminization of migration into South Korea, examining its trends and characteristics. It illustrates the role played by the Josonjok and marriage migrants in the process. The impact of this phenomenon on Korean society and policy is also explored, and finally, gender issues are examined. It is notable that the Korean Government’s perception of this phenomenon is not from the perspective of a gender issue, but as a population or family matter. The current integration policies, therefore, lack in gender equality content or measures. Thus it is that policies in South Korea need a more ‘gender-mainstream’ perspective.

Globalization has changed the flow of migrants and remittances making them more fluid, and much attention has been paid to the relation between remittances and developments around the world. Today there are more than 50 million Latinos living in the United States, 63% of which are Mexicans. They remit money to their families in Mexico and their financial support is crucial not only for the family budget but also for the Mexican economy. Besides, Mexican migrants form communities in the U.S. with people from the same province expanding their transnational networks and they send collective remittances to their hometowns. Furthermore, a social development-community project, the “3x1 Program” is promoted by Mexico’s Social Development Ministry (SEDESOL) cooperating with three levels of Mexican government: federal, state, and municipal. It is a unique phenomenon that communities of Mexican migrants in the U.S. send collective remittances to invest in development for their native towns maintaining their identities. The main objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the remittances from migrants in Mexico and the function of this program with remittances as a community development tool.

Latin American and The Caribbean outmigration coincided with the onset of the Demographic Transition for some countries, but little is known on how both processes are related. To what extent natural growth did contribute in explaining net migration´s trend? What other processes could have inhibited its impact on international mobility?

Country level data from UN Population Division, World Bank and the Quality of Governance Institute was organized into a macro-panel, where 16 countries were followed up from 1975 to 2010. A multivariate linear model with fixed effects and interactions, to account for demographic inhibitors, such as urbanization, industrialization or increase in productivity, was estimated.

Similar to what has been found for the Trans-Saharan migration system, natural increase has a negative and significant effect on net migration´s evolution, even while other processes are going on. Urbanization significantly inhibited the effect of natural increase on net migration, up to four times, but this was not the case for productivity increase or for industrialization.